94: ‘Very Few Outhouses Anymore’ With Jason Snell

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Apple’s September 2014 event rumors, especially the likelihood of two larger iPhones and a wearable/watch. The hosts argue Apple is managing expectations amid heavy supply-chain leaks, and that the bigger strategic story is how smartphones, wearables, and language itself are evolving toward pocket computers and wrist computers.

Main Topics: Yankees and the value of staying relevant: The show opens with a baseball riff about the Yankees’ disappointing season, using it as an analogy for teams—or products—that stay in contention versus those that fall out early. The hosts value seasons (and by extension product cycles) that remain meaningful late into the year. Apple’s leak cycle and the September 2014 event: Much of the discussion focuses on why Apple’s event appears to be shaping up as two iPhones plus a wearable. The speakers compare modern leaks to the much more controlled 2007 iPhone launch and explain how Apple uses secrecy and selective rumor control. Why the iPhone is a category unlike any other: The hosts emphasize that the iPhone’s scale dwarfs the iPod and most other consumer electronics. They argue that the event’s intensity, rumor volume, and shipping demands are driven by the iPhone’s unmatched market importance. Wearables as an accessory, not a replacement phone: The wearable/watch discussion centers on whether Apple should define the product by the watch category at all. The speakers think the device will likely depend on the iPhone, serve as a companion accessory, and perhaps be valuable for notifications, payments, and sensors rather than as a standalone watch. Bigger iPhones, one-handed use, and battery life: They debate rumors of 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhones, including a possible one-handed mode. The larger model is framed as a niche product with potential advantages in screen size and battery life, likely appealing to power users and enterprise customers. How product form factors change language and behavior: A broader philosophical thread explores how words like 'phone' and 'watch' evolve as devices change. The hosts argue that 'phone' now means a pocket computer, and that 'watch' may eventually mean a wrist computer with health and notification functions. Venue logistics and Apple event theater: The final section speculates about Apple’s choice of the Flint Center venue and a temporary structure outside. The hosts conclude the simpler explanation is likely true: more seats, a bigger hands-on area, and the practical needs of a larger-than-usual launch.

Key Arguments: Apple likely has strong reasons to pre-announce only when production and supply-chain secrecy are already breaking down; the iPhone’s supply chain makes long-lead secrecy nearly impossible. The iPhone is so important that Apple cannot afford to wait months between announcement and shipment the way it did with the original iPhone in 2007; pre-announcing a phone too early triggers the Osborne effect. The wearable is unlikely to succeed by imitating a luxury wristwatch; Apple should design it as a new computing form factor with its own interaction model. A smartwatch’s best use may be as an iPhone companion for quick glances, notifications, sensors, and payments rather than as a full standalone computer. If Apple ships a 5.5-inch iPhone, the main benefits will likely be screen real estate and substantially better battery life, while one-handed use becomes a real tradeoff. The larger iPhone could open a niche for users who want one device instead of a phone plus tablet, especially enterprise and field workers. Language changes alongside technology: 'phone' already means a pocket computer, and 'watch' may eventually come to mean a wrist computer. Apple can broaden the iPhone line without cannibalizing itself; multiple form factors can coexist the way MacBook Air/Pro and iMac sizes do.

Data Points: Yankees starting pitchers injured: 4 of 5 opening-day starters - Cited as remarkable injury trouble contributing to a still-above-.500 season Yankees record discussed: 5 games over .500 - Used to frame how unexpectedly competitive the team still is Stephen Drew batting average: .160 - Example of how weak the Yankees’ designated hitter situation had become Stephen Drew home runs: 5 - Same discussion of the Yankees’ lineup Yankee Stadium attendance: 48,000 - Used to explain poor cell reception at the game Original iPhone preannounce gap: About 6 months - Announced in January 2007 and shipped in late June Macworld iPhone review timing: Review written in a tent / at summer vacation - Anecdote illustrating the long gap between announcement and shipment Apple target market share for iPhone: 1% of the phone market - Steve Jobs’ stated initial goal at the original iPhone keynote Tom Landry-era Cowboys streak: 20 consecutive winning seasons - Used as an analogy for consistency and meaningful seasons iPhone event timing discussed: September 8, 2014 - The episode is recorded Sunday night before Apple’s big event Potential wearable price rumor: $400 - Discussed as a rumor that may be used to manage expectations Original iPad rumored price: $999 - Used as a comparison for how Apple and the press manage price expectations Original iPad starting price: $499 - The reveal that shocked attendees after rumors had pushed expectations higher New iPhone sizes rumored: 4.7 inches and 5.5 inches - Central hardware rumor discussed throughout the episode Classic iPhone display size: 3.5 inches - Baseline used to contrast the larger rumored models iPhone 5 display size: 4 inches - Referenced as the prior major size change One-handed mode rumor: Yes - Reported by the New York Times as a feature of the larger iPhone Battery life target comparison: 10 hours vs. 18 hours - Speculation that the larger phone could offer materially better endurance Phone market forecast: 90% of humans on Earth - The hosts speculate that mobile phones may become nearly universal globally Phone market size: 7 billion people on the planet - Used to argue that nearly everyone who can have a phone will eventually have one

Pivotal Quotes: "they're one of those teams" — Speaker 1: Used about the Yankees as a perennial contender that remains relevant despite a bad season "It's got to be $999. Look at it." — Speaker 1: Reaction to the original iPad introduction and pre-launch price rumors "don't think of the 5.5 inch iPhone as just a big iPhone" — Speaker 2: Core framing of the larger phone as a different class of device rather than simply a scaled-up model

Implications: Apple’s event is likely to reshape expectations for phones and wearables, but not by inventing another iPhone-sized category. The bigger takeaway is that companion devices, battery life, and form-factor diversity may matter more than old watch/phone labels.