A 2014 Preview From Emily Lakdawalla

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Planetary Radio’s New Year 2014 episode previews a remarkably busy solar-system exploration year, centered on Rosetta’s wake-up and comet encounter, ongoing Mars and Moon missions, Cassini’s future under budget pressure, and the crowded orbit of active spacecraft. The hosts also frame these missions against broader policy fights over launch systems and planetary-science funding, while Bruce Betts closes with skywatching and trivia.

Main Topics: 2014 as a peak year for planetary exploration (Priority: 5/5): Emily Lochtawala describes 2014 as a “golden age” of robotic planetary exploration, with roughly 20 active spacecraft and several major milestones expected across the solar system. Rosetta’s wake-up and comet rendezvous (Priority: 5/5): The European Space Agency’s Rosetta mission is highlighted as the year’s biggest storyline: waking from deep hibernation, approaching comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, entering orbit, and deploying the Philae lander. Mars mission transition: aging orbiters, Opportunity, Curiosity, MAVEN, and India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (Priority: 5/5): The episode details the status of Mars missions, including aging spacecraft on borrowed time, Opportunity’s new terrain, Curiosity’s push toward Mount Sharp, and the arrival of MAVEN and India’s first interplanetary mission. Moon and inner solar system activity (Priority: 4/5): The Moon remains active with LRO, LADEE, Chang’e 3/Yutu, and Artemis, while Mercury, Venus, and other inner solar-system missions continue to generate data and images. Policy and funding fights in U.S. spaceflight (Priority: 5/5): Bill Nye argues that launch competition and frequent launches drive innovation, while criticizing the Space Launch System as a congressional mandate that risks squeezing planetary science budgets. Cassini’s possible premature end and long-term mission planning (Priority: 4/5): Cassini’s 2014 orbit enables key Saturn science, but the discussion warns that decisions about ending the mission in 2015 would disrupt planned observations and waste an otherwise productive spacecraft. Bruce Betts’ skywatching and space trivia (Priority: 2/5): The closing segment covers Jupiter near opposition, Venus at inferior conjunction, Mars brightening, Saturn pre-dawn visibility, and a trivia question about the first space-specific power tool.

Key Arguments: Frequent launches and active competition are beneficial because they accelerate innovation and reduce the time needed to complete ambitious missions like Mars exploration. Planetary science is under threat from budget pressure, and large mandated programs like the Space Launch System may crowd out smaller scientific missions. Rosetta represents a high-stakes but potentially historic achievement because it has been in full hibernation for years and must successfully reestablish contact before its comet operations. Many current spacecraft are far beyond their design lives, yet continue returning valuable science; their extended lifetimes increase scientific return. Mars remains scientifically rich because repeat imaging can reveal active surface change, including dunes, gullies, and newly exposed ice in fresh craters. Cassini should not be cut short because its carefully planned orbital geometry in 2014 underpins major Saturn science, and changing course for an early termination would waste years of mission design. The combination of current missions and upcoming arrivals makes 2014 a transition year and 2015 an especially important year for dwarf planets (Ceres and Pluto/Charon).

Data Points: Active spacecraft in the solar system: About 20 to 24 - Multiple mentions describe the current number of spacecraft exploring or in transit in the solar system. Rosetta hibernation duration: About 2.5 years - Rosetta has been in total hibernation because it is too far from the Sun for solar power. Rosetta wake-up date: January 20, 2014 - Expected first attempt to reawaken and communicate with Earth. Rosetta comet orbit insertion: August 2014 - The spacecraft is expected to enter orbit around comet 67P later in the year. Philae lander deployment: Late 2014 - Rosetta is expected to deploy the Philae lander onto the comet surface. Mars spacecraft beyond warranty: 4 of 5 at Mars - Mars Odyssey, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Express, and Opportunity are all described as beyond warranty. Lunar missions counted as active: 6 spacecraft - Includes LRO, Artemis, Chang’e 3, Yutu, LADEE, and another count correction discussed by Emily. Chang’e 3 warranty: About 3 months - Emily says a double-length survival would be very good. MAVEN and India’s Mars Orbiter arrival: September 2014 - Both spacecraft are expected to reach Mars around the same time. Cassini orbit phase: Throughout 2014 - Cassini remains in an orbit above and below Saturn’s ring plane for the year. Dawn target distance: At least more than one pixel in 2014 - Emily describes Dawn as approaching Ceres, the largest asteroid, during the year. New Horizons destination: Pluto and Charon in 2015 - 2014 is spent closing the distance for a 2015 flyby encounter. Jupiter opposition: Just past opposition - Bruce Betts notes Jupiter is at its brightest and biggest for the year. Venus inferior conjunction: January 11, 2014 - Venus passes between Earth and the Sun and is difficult to see.

Pivotal Quotes: "This is going to be the year of Rosetta." — Emily Lochtawala: Her headline prediction for the most anticipated planetary mission of 2014. "Our big concern at the Planetary Society is planetary science gets short shrifted." — Bill Nye: He explains why the Space Launch System debate matters to scientific mission funding. "It would be a travesty." — Emily Lochtawala: Her reaction to the possibility of ending Cassini in 2015 and disrupting planned science.

Implications: Listeners are shown that 2014 is a pivotal transition year: major missions may succeed or fail, aging spacecraft may outlive expectations, and policy choices will shape whether future planetary science thrives or is squeezed out.