The Exciting Year Ahead on the Final Frontier

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Planetary Radio’s 2015 kickoff focuses on major space milestones across planetary science, human spaceflight, policy, and technology. Guests highlight Dawn at Ceres, New Horizons at Pluto, Cassini’s icy moon flybys, Rosetta’s evolving comet activity, ISS and commercial crew developments, SpaceX’s reusable rocket tests, Europa mission lobbying, and Planetary Society projects like LightSail, deep drilling, and exoplanet lasers.

Main Topics: 2015 as a landmark year for planetary exploration (Priority: 5/5): Emily Lockdawala frames 2015 as the 'year of the dwarf planet,' emphasizing Dawn at Ceres, New Horizons at Pluto/Charon, and Cassini’s renewed focus on icy moons and small bodies. Rosetta, Philae, and the changing comet environment (Priority: 4/5): Rosetta’s comet will become more active as it approaches the Sun, requiring orbital adjustments, while the team hopes Philae may awaken later in the year. Human spaceflight and commercial launch/reusability (Priority: 5/5): Jason Davis discusses SpaceX’s barge landing attempt, the ISS one-year mission with Scott Kelly and Mikhail Kornienko, and milestones for Boeing and SpaceX in commercial crew development. Space policy, advocacy, and a Europa mission (Priority: 5/5): Casey Dreyer focuses on the February U.S. budget cycle and the possibility of a new-start request for a Europa mission, while expanding advocacy toward human spaceflight policy. Planetary Society science and technology projects (Priority: 4/5): Bruce Betts highlights the Planetary Deep Drill field test, exoplanet laser calibration work, Shoemaker NEO grants, and broader Society initiatives supporting exploration and planetary defense. Night sky highlights and science trivia (Priority: 3/5): Betts provides observing tips for all five visible planets, Comet Lovejoy, a recap of Galileo’s moon discoveries, and the trivia contest centered on the most massive giant-planet visitor spacecraft.

Key Arguments: 2015 is positioned as a major year because multiple flagship missions will reach critical milestones, including Dawn at Ceres and New Horizons at Pluto. Dwarf planets, icy moons, and other small worlds deserve to be treated as a class because they share similar physics and may all have internal geology and complex histories. Cassini’s move back into the ring plane will enable a concentrated campaign of close icy-moon flybys, especially Dione and Enceladus. Rosetta’s comet will become more active as it approaches the Sun, making the mission both scientifically richer and operationally more challenging. A successful SpaceX barge landing would substantially reduce launch costs and mark a major step toward reusable rockets. The ISS year will be dominated by Scott Kelly and Mikhail Kornienko’s one-year mission, intended to help prepare humans for Mars travel. NASA budget decisions in February could determine whether Europa becomes the next major outer solar system mission, making advocacy in Washington especially important. The Planetary Society is broadening beyond planetary science to engage more directly in human spaceflight policy and public education. Planetary Society technical projects such as deep drilling and improved exoplanet calibration tools are being advanced through field tests and prototype deployments.

Data Points: Dawn arrival at Ceres: April 2015 - Emily Lockdawala’s forecast for the year of the dwarf planet New Horizons flyby of Pluto/Charon: July 2015 - Emily Lockdawala’s forecast for the year of the dwarf planet Cassini close flybys of Dione: 2 - Emily Lockdawala describes 2015 icy-moon encounters Cassini close flybys of Enceladus: 3 - Emily Lockdawala describes late-year targeted encounters Venus Express end of mission: Early 2015 - Emily Lockdawala notes loss of inner solar system missions MESSENGER end of mission: March or April 2015 - Inner solar system mission conclusion Akatsuki Venus arrival attempt: November 2015 - Possible return of Venus science at the end of the year SpaceX barge landing attempt date: January 6, 2015 - Jason Davis discusses reusable rocket testing SpaceX landing success chance: About 50% - Jason Davis relays SpaceX’s estimate for the attempt ISS one-year mission start: March 2015 - Scott Kelly and Mikhail Kornienko begin a year in space ISS one-year mission end: March 2016 - Duration of the long-duration physiology experiment Space tourist on Soyuz flight: Sarah Brightman for about 1 week - Crew exchange mission to the ISS in September President’s budget release: February 2015 - Casey Dreyer’s key policy milestone Commercial crew target flights: 2017 - Milestones for Boeing and SpaceX crews to ISS Planetary Deep Drill field test: March 2015 - Bruce Betts reports first field prototype test Planetary Defense Conference: April 2015 - Society sponsorship and Shoemaker NEO grant announcements Total lunar eclipses visible in the Americas/Pacific: 2 - Bruce Betts’ sky forecast for the year Comet Lovejoy brightness: Fourth magnitude - Predicted peak brightness, though likely only barely naked-eye visible Earth perihelion distance: 147 million km - Bruce Betts’ Random Space Fact about Earth’s closest approach to the Sun Earth aphelion distance: 152 million km - Comparison point for Earth’s orbital variation Earth-Sun distance variation: 3.5% - Variation between perihelion and aphelion Cassini orbiter dry mass: 2,100 kg - Answer to the trivia question about spacecraft visiting giant planets Cassini-Huygens dry mass: Over 2,500 kg - Cassini orbiter plus Huygens and adapters Galileo dry mass: About 1,300 kg - Runner-up in giant-planet spacecraft mass comparison Voyager dry mass: About 700 kg - Relative lightweight among giant-planet visitors

Pivotal Quotes: "2015 is going to be a big year." — Bill Nye: Opening remarks about upcoming space milestones "It’s going to be the year of the dwarf planet." — Emily Lockdawala: Her headline forecast for planetary science in 2015 "If they pull that off, it will be a huge leap in reusability for space flight." — Jason Davis: Discussion of SpaceX attempting to land a rocket stage on a barge

Implications: Listeners should expect a year of high-stakes mission milestones, policy fights, and technical demonstrations that could reshape planetary science, reusable launch, and future Mars/Europa planning. The Planetary Society is positioning itself to influence both exploration priorities and public understanding.