Planetary Society All-Stars Look Back at 2019 and Ahead to 2020

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Planetary Radio’s year-end special reviewed the biggest space stories of 2019 and previewed 2020. The panel covered Artemis politics, lunar landings by China/Israel/India, asteroid sample-return missions, planetary defense funding, InSight’s Mars science, commercial crew progress and setbacks, ESA’s growing role, Dragonfly, LightSail 2, and the upcoming Mars mission swarm.

Main Topics: Artemis and lunar policy: Casey Dreyer argued that the Vice President’s 2024 Moon-landing directive was the defining policy shock of 2019, but funding and schedule realities make it unlikely without a much larger budget increase. 2019 lunar and asteroid mission highlights: Emily Lakdawalla reviewed China’s successful Chang’e-4 far-side landing, the failures of Israel’s Beresheet and India’s Vikram, and the successes of Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx at rocky asteroids Ryugu and Bennu. Planetary defense gains: Casey emphasized NASA’s commitment to a dedicated NEO survey telescope and a standing planetary defense budget line, framing them as major structural changes for finding and deflecting hazardous objects. Mars science and exploration: The panel discussed InSight’s Marsquakes, the unresolved mole problem, Opportunity’s end, methane ambiguity, and the strong setup for 2020 Mars missions including Mars 2020 and ExoMars. Commercial crew and ISS transition: Jason reviewed Crew Dragon and Starliner progress, the return of U.S. crew launches as a likely 2020 milestone, and the policy tension around Boeing, SpaceX, and extending ISS operations to 2030. Outer planets, robotics, and technology demos: The group highlighted Dragonfly at Titan, LightSail 2’s successful solar sailing, and broader enthusiasm for innovative missions and reusable lessons from 2019. 2020 preview and space policy outlook: The conversation ended with expectations for a Mars-heavy 2020, ESA’s budget commitments, and an election-year battle over NASA funding and Artemis priorities.

Key Arguments: A 2024 lunar landing is technically and financially unrealistic without a much larger and sustained NASA budget increase. China’s Chang’e-4 demonstrated impressive far-side landing and relay capability, even if scientific returns were more limited than the engineering achievement. The failures of Beresheet and Vikram showed how difficult soft landings are, especially in the final moments before touchdown. Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx both found unexpectedly rocky asteroid surfaces, which is scientifically valuable because it challenges assumptions about small-body geology. NASA’s creation of a planetary defense budget line and commitment to a dedicated NEO survey telescope represent a major institutional shift toward protecting Earth. InSight is proving Mars is still geologically active via Marsquakes, even though its heat-flow mole remains problematic. Commercial crew is close to restoring U.S. astronaut launches from Florida, but Boeing and SpaceX have both faced major program delays and setbacks. ESA’s new budget and commitments to HERA and Mars Sample Return significantly strengthen international exploration architecture. LightSail 2 validated controlled solar sailing, marking a major technology demonstration for the Planetary Society and future propulsion concepts.

Data Points: Artemis initial supplemental request: $1.6 billion - White House supplemental funding request after the 2024 Moon directive Congressional lunar lander funding: $600 million - Congress’s response to the requested $1 billion for lunar lander work Planetary defense annual funding: about $150 million/year - Casey’s description of the standing NASA planetary defense budget Growth in planetary defense funding: about 4,000% - Budget growth over roughly the last decade for planetary defense ISS extension target: 2030 - NASA/Congress discussion of extending station operations ISS annual cost: $3.5–$4 billion/year - Estimated ongoing U.S. spending to keep the station operating Marsquakes detected by InSight: more than 300 - Seismometer results reported at AGU and in Nature Mars seismic source region: Elysium - Localization of several larger Marsquakes near a young volcanic region Hayabusa2 sample sites: 2 - Japanese mission collected samples from asteroid Ryugu and created an artificial crater Meteors in Quadrantids: up to 40 per hour - Bruce Betts’s skywatching note for the peak of the shower Mars rover warranty-like lifespan: about 6 months - Expected surface lifetime for the solar-powered ExoMars rover Mars geology and air pressure mission facts: 2020 + 4 missions - Four Mars missions planned for launch in summer 2020 Planetary defense telescope goal: 90% of objects 140 meters or larger - Congressional mandate discussed for near-Earth object detection

Pivotal Quotes: "NASA should land humans on the moon by 2024." — Casey Dreyer: Describing the March 26 Vice President announcement that reshaped NASA planning "You can't just say, NASA, do this by 2024. And then they'll say, okay, where's the resource to do it?" — Jason Davis: On why mandates without funding do not make schedules real "It is very much a great time to be a space fan." — Emily Lakdawalla: Summing up the abundance of active missions across the solar system

Implications: NASA enters 2020 with major pressure to fund Artemis, while planetary defense and Mars exploration gain momentum. Commercial crew, ESA partnerships, and innovative demos like LightSail 2 suggest a rapidly expanding but still risky era for exploration.