Space Policy Edition #20: Looking back on the year in space policy. Also, your questions!

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode reviews 2017 as a largely transitional year for U.S. space policy, then tackles listener questions on moon-vs.-Mars strategy, militarization concerns, launch market competition, New Frontiers selection, and international space advocacy. The hosts stress that budgets, bureaucracy, and political priorities—not just technology—will shape what happens in 2018 and beyond.

Main Topics: 2017 as a transition year in space policy (Priority: 5/5): The hosts argue that despite major political change, 2017 produced few fundamental shifts in NASA or U.S. civil space policy; most programs continued largely unchanged while the new administration and Congress settled in. Moon versus Mars strategy (Priority: 5/5): In response to a listener, they explain that lunar activity can teach useful operational lessons, but a moon colony is not a necessary stepping-stone to Mars and will only help if designed specifically with Mars-relevant objectives in mind. Military space, treaties, and the Outer Space Treaty (Priority: 5/5): They discuss the meaning of presidential remarks about military applications of space, distinguishing weapons in space from military assets in space and noting that current satellite and surveillance capabilities are already integral to national security. Launch industry competition and heavy lift (Priority: 4/5): The conversation covers which rockets may phase out, whether small-launch companies can survive, and why heavy lift remains important for national security, deep-space exploration, and major commercial ambitions. New Frontiers mission selection and mission diversity (Priority: 4/5): They explain the delay and process behind NASA mission down-selects, noting the final candidates and the absence of moon and Venus missions despite growing interest in those destinations. Budget pressure, especially the census vs. NASA (Priority: 4/5): A major theme is that future NASA growth may be constrained by broader federal budget fights, especially Census funding, which competes within the same appropriations allocation as NASA. Planetary Society advocacy and international space policy (Priority: 3/5): The hosts describe the Society’s member-driven advocacy model, its work with U.S. policymakers, and its growing engagement with space policy efforts in other countries.

Key Arguments: Most of 2017’s apparent upheaval in space policy did not translate into major programmatic change; it was mainly a transition year. Going to the moon is not required to go to Mars, but lunar activity could be valuable only if the program is intentionally designed to support Mars-relevant learning. Moon and Mars environments are so different that systems optimized for one are often not efficient for the other. Long-duration human spaceflight still depends heavily on Earth-based support; the ISS experience shows how difficult true independence from Earth is. The president’s military-space remarks likely reflected imprecise language rather than a genuine push to weaponize the Moon or violate the Outer Space Treaty. Military use of space already includes surveillance, launch warning, and satellite operations; these differ from placing weapons in orbit. The launch market is crowded, and many small-launch companies may fail because demand outside government contracts remains uncertain. Heavy lift remains strategically important even in the era of CubeSats, reusable rockets, and in-orbit smallsat launches. NASA mission selection delays are mostly bureaucratic and legal, not secretive or nefarious. The Venus science community has been weakened by long mission gaps, making it harder to compete for future selections. NASA’s budget outlook is threatened by broader federal fiscal pressures, especially Census funding and tax-policy changes. Member-based advocacy gives the Planetary Society unusual leverage because congressional offices respond to membership counts and public support.

Data Points: NASA authorization gap: First NASA authorization bill in 7 years - 2017 congressional action, described as not substantially changing NASA direction Acting NASA administrator duration: Almost the entire year of 2017 - The agency lacked a confirmed administrator for most of the year Census spending scale: About $15 billion - Estimated eventual cost of the 2020 Census Census emergency request: $1.5 billion - Mentioned as an emergency supplemental request in the current year CJS allocation: Around $55 billion per year - Approximate appropriations pool NASA and Census compete within SpaceX launch cadence: 18 successful launches in 2017 - Described as more than half of all U.S. launches that year SpaceX reuse: 5 reused rocket cores - Among the 18 launches in 2017 SpaceX launch goal: At least 30 launches in 2018 - Company target discussed in the episode New Frontiers finalist count: 2 finalists - The final down-select for the New Frontiers mission line Mars / Moon distance contrast: Hundreds of millions of miles vs. hundreds of thousands of miles - Used to illustrate the much greater communication and logistics challenge for Mars Mars communication delay: 2–3 seconds round trip to the Moon - Used to show that lunar operations still resemble near-Earth dependence Human spaceflight lag: Nearly a generation without a Venus mission - Explains why the Venus community has been depleted

Pivotal Quotes: "There was one paragraph changed in the official space policy this entire year." — Casey Dreyer: Summarizing how limited the formal policy change was in 2017 "If the question is, is it necessary to go to the moon in order to go to Mars? The answer is no." — Jason Dreyer: Core answer to the listener’s moon-versus-Mars question "We know how to have people in low Earth orbit. But when you go to the moon or if you go to Mars, you can't resupply that often." — Jason Dreyer: Explaining why lunar experience does not automatically translate to Mars operations

Implications: Listeners should expect 2018 to be shaped by budget fights, NASA leadership changes, and major mission decisions. For industry, launch competition and reusable rockets may reshape the market, while policy advocates will need sustained public support to influence outcomes.