Brian Laks: Uranium, Tin, and Hunting For Hated

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Old West’s Brian shares how the firm finds deeply out-of-favor opportunities, built early convictions in uranium, and now sees similar asymmetries in tin and select copper names. He stresses valuation discipline, supply-demand imbalances, and patience over trading momentum, while noting uranium’s setup is less asymmetric today than in prior years.

Main Topics: Old West’s contrarian, patient investing process (Priority: 5/5): Brian explains that Old West seeks beaten-down, underfollowed sectors where market price diverges sharply from intrinsic value, emphasizing management quality, long holding periods, and research depth over activism or short-term trading. Uranium thesis evolution and positioning (Priority: 5/5): The discussion revisits how Old West identified uranium years before the crowd, built positions through the downcycle, and then trimmed exposure as the trade became crowded and valuations rose. Physical uranium vs miners and risk-reward tradeoffs (Priority: 5/5): Brian compares owning physical uranium to miners, explaining that miners offered greater torque when spot was depressed, but that higher spot prices, equity rerating, and single-asset risk make selectivity more important now. Tin as a similar but earlier supply deficit opportunity (Priority: 4/5): He outlines why tin resembles earlier uranium: concentrated supply, limited quality projects, price below needed incentive levels, and demand tied to electronics and secular growth areas like solar and data centers. Copper’s structural deficit and company-specific opportunities (Priority: 4/5): Brian agrees copper has a strong long-term setup but says it is more macro-sensitive and offers many ways to play it; Old West prefers special situations and management-driven stories like the Lundin group’s South American expansion. Portfolio discipline, concentration, and patience (Priority: 4/5): The conversation emphasizes staying focused on a few high-conviction ideas, avoiding FOMO-driven diversification, and accepting volatility while waiting for multi-year theses to work.

Key Arguments: Old West targets industries that are hated, underowned, and capital-starved, because those settings create the biggest valuation gaps and the best long-term asymmetry. Uranium was attractive because the market was washed out, supply was constrained, and most investors ignored it; Old West could build positions before liquidity and awareness improved. As uranium moved from roughly $20-25 to around $70, the investment case changed materially; the miners became less obviously mispriced, and physical uranium gained relative appeal as downside risk increased. Single-mine and junior-miner exposure carries meaningful left-tail risk, so a higher spot price does not automatically make miners the best risk-reward versus physical holdings. Tin has a fragile supply base concentrated in China, Indonesia, and Myanmar, while demand is supported by electronics, solar, and data centers; this creates a multi-year imbalance even if short-term demand is weak. Copper may be a good long-term trade, but because it is tied more to broad economic activity and CapEx cycles, Old West prefers names with operational leverage, discoveries, or unique management execution rather than simple beta exposure. The key variable in commodities is not near-term noise but the size and direction of the future deficit relative to global usage; if supply is not built now, the eventual correction can be violent. Patience is a competitive advantage: the firm prefers to build positions when sentiment is terrible and trim when the crowd becomes euphoric. ETFs and financial participation have changed uranium market structure, increasing liquidity and making the current setup different from the earlier cycle. For copper, inflated expectations around net-zero electrification may be overstated, but any disappointment there would still leave long-term supply deficits unresolved. A disciplined focus on a few sectors can outperform constant idea-chasing, especially when the investor base values long-term compounding over smooth quarterly returns.

Data Points: Old West start date: 2016 - Brian says he has been at Old West since 2016. Time since previous podcast: Almost 3-4 years - The host notes Brian’s last appearance was around 2019 or 2020. Uranium price then: $20-25 per pound - Brian describes uranium’s price when Old West first built positions. Uranium price now: About $70 per pound - Used to frame how much the investment case has changed. Uranium price needed to balance market: Around $50 per pound - Brian references the common assumption that the market required roughly this price to rebalance. NextGen estimated average entry price: $1.97 - From the public 13F discussion, used to show early positioning. NextGen current price: Close to $6 - Illustrates the stock’s rerating since Old West’s initial purchase. Cameco estimated average entry price: $9.66 - From the public 13F discussion, showing early entry. Cameco current price: Close to $40 - Used to highlight the scale of gains from early uranium exposure. Old West uranium position count: 20-25 names previously, now about 3-5 - Brian says the uranium sleeve became much more concentrated over time. Uranium ETF/liquidity growth: 5x to 10x volume increases in some names - Liquidity improved as prices rose in 2020-2021. Tin market size: About 400,000 tons / roughly $10 billion - The host and Brian discuss tin’s small market size and leverage to supply changes. Tin price: About $25,000 per ton - Brian argues this is too low and near/below incentive levels. Tin previous spike: Around $50,000 per ton - He references the price shock during recent supply/demand stress. Tin supply concentration: China and Indonesia account for about half the market - Used to explain supply fragility. Myanmar tin contribution: About 20-25% of world supply at peak - Brian notes Myanmar’s role and subsequent decline/shutdown. Podcast commercialization: Multiple sponsors and discount codes - Intro/outro ads for Metimco, Tegus, Marhelm Data, and Ticker. Length of discussion: Multi-year thesis horizon - Brian repeatedly frames positions as 3-5 years plus, sometimes 5-10 years.

Pivotal Quotes: "When everything is completely bombed out and there's kind of no hope in the sector, then when you finally get a little bit of a turn, you're really going to see a rising tide lifts all boats scenario." — Brian: Explaining why Old West built uranium positions early in a depressed market. "Investing in uranium at 70 is different than investing in uranium at 20." — Brian: Summarizing why current uranium positioning must be more selective than in prior years. "The supply is not there. That's just, it's not an easy fix." — Brian: On copper and tin, emphasizing the multi-year structural deficit argument.

Implications: The episode argues that the best opportunities remain in commodities where supply cannot adjust quickly and sentiment is still weak. For listeners, the message is to focus on valuation, quality, and time horizon rather than chasing crowded momentum.