Episode Summary
Executive Summary: In this episode of This Week in Startups, host Jason Calacanis, along with venture capitalists Gary Tan and Zach Coelius, conduct a bracket-style analysis of the most significant trends and disasters of the 2010-2020 decade. They debate the impact of AI/ML, ride-sharing, streaming, and mindfulness as major wins, while discussing election interference, San Francisco's decline, Theranos, and Zuckerberg as key disasters. The conversation concludes with predictions for the 2020s, including carbon pricing, cancer cures, and potential geopolitical shifts.
Main Topics: Bracketology: Wins of the Decade (Priority: 5/5): The hosts debate the most impactful positive trends of the 2010s, including AI/ML, ride-sharing, Amazon Prime, streaming, and mindfulness. Gary Tan and Zach Coelius argue for AI/ML as the top win, while Jason Calacanis champions ride-sharing and the gig economy. Bracketology: Disasters of the Decade (Priority: 5/5): The discussion covers major disasters such as the 2016 election interference, San Francisco's decline, Theranos, WeWork, and Zuckerberg's Facebook. Zach Coelius highlights San Francisco as an 'unmitigated disaster,' while Gary Tan focuses on Amazon's consolidation of power. AI/ML and the Future of Technology (Priority: 4/5): The panel explores the rapid advancement of AI and machine learning, citing examples like computer vision in retail (Standard Cognition) and AI in drive-thrus (Apprente). They emphasize the speed of change and its potential to disrupt industries and jobs. The Gig Economy and Employment (Priority: 4/5): Jason Calacanis argues that ride-sharing and the gig economy have redefined employment, offering flexibility and rising wages. Zach Coelius agrees, viewing it as a move away from traditional employment structures. Mindfulness vs. Streaming (Priority: 3/5): The hosts debate whether mindfulness (self-awareness, mental health) or streaming (entertainment as an 'opiate') will define the decade. Jason and Gary choose mindfulness, while Zach picks streaming, reflecting differing views on human nature and societal trends. San Francisco's Decline (Priority: 3/5): Zach Coelius criticizes San Francisco's governance, citing incompetence and ideological extremism. He contrasts the city's failure with the success of tech companies, calling it a 'disaster' that attracts both innovators and drug users. Predictions for the 2020s (Priority: 4/5): The panel forecasts key trends: carbon pricing (Gary Tan), curing cancer (Jason Calacanis), a potential revolution in China (Zach Coelius), and the rise of CRISPR and gene editing (Jason Calacanis).
Key Arguments: AI/ML is the most important trend of the decade, with deep learning and computer vision advancing rapidly, as seen in Standard Cognition's camera-only retail solution and Apprente's AI for drive-thrus. Ride-sharing and the gig economy have redefined employment, providing flexibility and rising wages, and acting as a form of universal basic income. San Francisco is a disaster due to incompetent governance and ideological extremism, attracting both top tech talent and drug users, leading to a decline in quality of life. Theranos represents the worst fraud in the Valley, with Elizabeth Holmes imitating Steve Jobs and deceiving investors and the public for years. The 2016 election interference and the destruction of truth are terrifying long-term threats to democracy, potentially leading to the end of democratic institutions. Mindfulness and self-awareness will ultimately prevail over the negative impacts of social media and technology, as people take control of their mental health. Carbon pricing is essential to combat climate change, with a cost of $40 per ton needed to avoid catastrophic feedback loops. CRISPR and gene editing could lead to eugenics, with China already experimenting on human embryos, potentially creating a 'superior race.'
Data Points: AI image recognition error rate: 30% in 2012, 2-3% in 2017 - Gary Tan cites the rapid improvement in AI's ability to identify images, surpassing human accuracy. Amazon Prime cost: $150 per year - Jason Calacanis notes that users don't know the exact cost and wouldn't cancel even if it were $250. Initialized Capital fund size: $225 million (fourth fund) - Gary Tan mentions the growth of his VC firm from $7 million in 2012. Calm.com funding: $378,000 - Zach Coelius reveals that Calm.com was on the verge of shutting down before his syndicate invested. Carbon pricing needed: $40 per ton - Gary Tan argues that carbon must be priced at $40/ton to save the environment, representing a $40 trillion market. Zach Coelius's syndicate size: 1,800 people - Zach Coelius describes his syndicate as having 1,800 partners who help with deal diligence.
Pivotal Quotes: "I think the next decade will really be the ML AI, but it did start this decade, so I think that's a strong first pick." — Gary Tan: Gary Tan argues for AI/ML as the top win of the decade, emphasizing its foundational role. "The city of San Francisco, which is an unmitigated disaster. Unmitigated disaster. In the last that wins the whole thing." — Zach Coelius: Zach Coelius declares San Francisco the biggest disaster of the decade, criticizing its governance and social issues. "I'm an optimist. You know, I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't believe that technology is going to remake society, hopefully, in a better way." — Gary Tan: Gary Tan explains his optimistic outlook, choosing mindfulness over Theranos in the final bracket.
Implications: The podcast highlights the tension between technological progress and societal challenges. Listeners should consider the dual-edged nature of innovation, the importance of governance, and the need for mindfulness in an increasingly digital world. The predictions for the 2020s underscore urgent issues like climate change, AI ethics, and geopolitical stability.
About This Week in Startups
Jason Calacanis covers startups, tech, markets, media, and all the hottest topics in business and technology. He also interviews the world’s greatest founders, operators, investors, and innovators.