E1046: News Roundtable! TechCrunch’s Alex Wilhelm & Slow Ventures’ Sam Lessin on COVID’s potential privacy risk, private/public investor outlooks, remote work challenges & at-risk early-stage investors

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on how COVID-19 is reshaping work, privacy, investing, and society. Jason Calacanis, Sam Lessin, and Alex Wilhelm discuss quarantine fatigue, the likely permanence of remote work, contact-tracing tradeoffs, startup valuation resets, stock-market disconnects, and how the crisis may accelerate demands for universal healthcare, stronger safety nets, and more flexible labor markets.

Main Topics: Quarantine fatigue and family/work life (Priority: 5/5): The hosts compare how they’re coping with lockdown, with special focus on working from home, parenting, and the mental strain of extended isolation. They contrast the experience of knowledge workers with parents juggling young children and remote school. Remote work as a permanent shift (Priority: 5/5): The group argues the pandemic has forced companies to test remote work at scale, likely making distributed teams more normal long term. They discuss reduced need for offices, lower real-estate demand, broader hiring geographies, and new support products for remote work. Contact tracing, privacy, and surveillance (Priority: 5/5): A substantial segment debates Apple/Google-style tracing systems: how they might help suppress COVID-19, why they raise major privacy concerns, and what governance, auditing, and sunset clauses would be needed to make them acceptable. Startup fundraising and valuation reset (Priority: 4/5): Sam and Alex discuss how the downturn is changing venture dynamics: lower prices, tougher terms, uncertainty about next-round financing, and the risk that early-stage investors get squeezed by later-stage investors in a reset market. Stock market vs. economic reality (Priority: 4/5): The panel wrestles with the apparent disconnect between equity markets and the collapsing real economy, weighing arguments about cash alternatives, stimulus, Fed intervention, and whether asset prices are rational in a zero-rate world. Labor markets, inequality, and safety nets (Priority: 4/5): The conversation ends by linking remote work, minimum wage stagnation, unemployment support, and healthcare access. The speakers argue that broader public support can actually increase entrepreneurship and economic dynamism by making risk-taking possible.

Key Arguments: Remote work is being stress-tested under duress, but even this bad version of it is proving productive enough that many companies will not return fully to office-centric models. Contact tracing could be a powerful public-health tool, but without strong governance, auditing, sunset rules, and technical safeguards it risks becoming a durable surveillance infrastructure. Startups and VC pricing are being repriced because the next round is less certain; founders must now price both company performance and whether financing will still be available. The stock market may be underpricing economic damage, especially given unemployment surges and weak consumer demand, though some asset appreciation is rational because cash is being diluted and yields are low. More remote work broadens hiring to national and global labor pools, which can lower wages in high-cost hubs and reduce the premium once attached to location. A stronger safety net and universal healthcare would not weaken capitalism; they would expand the number of people able to take entrepreneurial risks. The pandemic may permanently change family planning, birth rates, and the way younger generations experience education and social life. Office culture won’t disappear entirely, but the era of mandatory full-time office presence for many startups is likely over.

Data Points: Slack community members: 5,500 - Jason says about 5,500 people joined the show's Slack in the first 10 days or so. Spam accounts banned: About 50 - Jason notes roughly 50 spammers tried to use the Slack as a top-of-funnel channel and were banned. Quarantine start timing: March 10 / March 15 - Jason says he went into quarantine on March 10 and San Francisco went into quarantine on March 15. New York deaths: 16,000 - Jason cites New York’s death total while comparing regional experiences with COVID-19. California total cases: 27 - Jason says California’s total cases were in the ballpark of New York’s total deaths, emphasizing the difference in outbreak scale. Unemployment claims: 5.2 million in one week - Alex references a Thursday report showing another 5.2 million unemployment claims in a single week. Total unemployment claims: 22 million - Jason and Alex reference 22 million unemployment claims over roughly four weeks. Democracy share of world population: 54% down to 51% - Jason cites a statistic that global democracy participation fell from 54% to 51%. Notion discount: 50% off first year - Sponsor offer mentioned for Notion team plan. Squarespace discount: 10% off first purchase - Sponsor offer code TWIST for Squarespace. Remote work timeline framing: 10 years pulled forward - Sam says the crisis has effectively accelerated remote work adoption by about a decade. Seed round size example: $4–5 million vs. $15 million - Sam contrasts earlier-era seed rounds like Uber/Thumbtack/DataStax with current larger seed expectations. Early-stage startup investment example: $100K bet - Jason mentions making seven accelerator investments without meeting founders in person, describing them as $100K bets. Minimum wage examples: $7–8/hour; $14–15/hour; $18/hour - Discussion of US federal minimum wage versus city-level wages and Australia as a higher-wage example.

Pivotal Quotes: "Privacy is like it's a luxury to be able to value that in a lot of ways." — Sam Lessin: In the discussion on contact tracing, Sam argues that pandemic conditions may force society to trade privacy for survival and economic continuity. "The good news is that the future just got pulled forward by 10 years." — Sam Lessin: Sam describes how remote work adoption has been accelerated dramatically by the pandemic. "If you really believe in free markets and capitalism, you need to provide more services." — Sam Lessin: Sam argues that universal healthcare and a better safety net are pro-market because they allow more people to take risks and start companies.

Implications: Expect more distributed teams, stricter startup capital discipline, and intensified debates over surveillance and public health. The crisis could permanently reshape office culture, labor markets, and the policy case for healthcare and income support.