Ep. 1130 - So, Who Won?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ben Shapiro frames the 2020 election as a chaotic, unresolved contest with several battleground states still undecided, then argues the biggest takeaway is a massive polling failure and a surprise Republican strength in the Senate and House. He emphasizes Trump’s improved performance with Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, portrays the media and polling industry as deeply incompetent and ideologically biased, and says the results validate a broader anti-woke, multiracial Republican coalition.

Main Topics: Election night chaos and unresolved presidential outcome (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro repeatedly stresses that key states remain too close to call, with recounts and possible lawsuits still looming. He describes the election as unusually disorganized and potentially determined by late-counted ballots and state-specific counting rules. Polling industry failure (Priority: 5/5): A central theme is that national and battleground polling dramatically overstated Biden’s strength. Shapiro argues pollsters failed to understand Trump’s coalition and should be discredited for their errors. Republican Senate and House performance (Priority: 5/5): He highlights unexpectedly strong Republican results in Senate races and predicts GOP gains in the House, arguing this prevents a Democratic sweep and blocks major policy ambitions like filibuster abolition and court packing. Trump’s multiracial coalition (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro presents exit polls as evidence that Trump made meaningful gains among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, especially in Florida and other Sun Belt states, and says this rebukes the left’s demographic assumptions. Florida as a model for GOP growth (Priority: 4/5): Florida is portrayed as proof of a successful Republican strategy combining Latino outreach, opposition to socialism, and support among Jewish voters. Shapiro says it points to the future of the party. Media and woke-left backlash (Priority: 4/5): He argues mainstream media and progressive commentators responded to Trump’s gains with racism narratives rather than introspection, reinforcing his claim that the left’s woke framework is politically toxic. Trump’s rhetoric and election legitimacy dispute (Priority: 3/5): Shapiro says Trump’s claim of victory was premature and should not have been made, but he argues some of Trump’s complaints about vote-counting irregularities were being mischaracterized by the media.

Key Arguments: The election remained unsettled because several pivotal states were still counting votes, and different states used inconsistent rules and timelines. Polling was not merely a little off; it was disastrously wrong nationally, in battleground states, and especially in Senate races. Republicans likely retained the Senate and gained House seats, preventing a Democratic governing mandate. Trump’s coalition expanded beyond the stereotyped white working-class base and included significant shares of Black, Latino, and Asian voters. Florida showed that Republican outreach to Latinos and opposition to socialism can produce strong electoral gains. The media and pollsters failed because they misunderstood Trump voters and continued treating politics through a woke, identity-based lens. Trump’s presidency and candidacy exposed the weakness of the left’s claim that calling Republicans racist would assemble a durable minority coalition. Even if Trump ultimately lost, the GOP’s 2020 showing would still represent a major victory against the radical left. Trump’s specific statement that he had already won was premature, but his broader concerns about vote counting were framed as not inherently illegitimate. The Democratic narrative of demographic destiny was badly undermined by the actual voting patterns shown in the exit polls.

Data Points: National polling average (RealClearPolitics): Biden +7 - Final pre-election national polling average cited by Shapiro National vote count: Biden just over 50%, Trump just over 48% - Shapiro says the actual national margin was under 2 points Wisconsin margin: Biden +0.6% and about 20,000 votes - Morning-after tally with roughly 97% reporting Wisconsin remaining ballots: about 100,000 - Votes still left to count as cited by Shapiro Pennsylvania margin: Trump + about 534,000 votes (roughly 10 points) - At the time of his update, with 1.6 million votes remaining Michigan margin: Biden +0.2% and about 12,000 votes - Shapiro describes Michigan as extremely close Nevada margin: roughly 8,000 to 10,000 votes - He notes the state had stopped announcing totals until the next day Arizona status: Called early for Biden by Fox; Shapiro says it may still be closer than reported - He cites outstanding votes as a source of uncertainty Florida statewide result: Trump +3% - He contrasts this with polling that had Trump down 0.9 in RCP average Florida polling error: about 5 points - Based on RCP average versus actual result Wisconsin polling error: about 6 points - RCP average had Biden up nearly 7 points Presidential exit poll: men: Trump 49%, Biden 48% - New York Times exit polling cited by Shapiro Presidential exit poll: women: Biden +13 - Shapiro says this was predictable White vote: Trump 57%, Biden 42% - Exit polling Black vote: Trump 12% overall; 17% among Black men - Shapiro says this was a major improvement from 2016 Hispanic vote: Trump 32% overall; 35% among Latino men - Exit polling and Edison data cited by Shapiro Asian vote: Trump 31% - Exit polling cited by Shapiro Florida Cuban-American vote: about 55% for Trump - NBC News exit polls cited in the Florida discussion Florida Puerto Rican vote: about 30% for Trump - NBC News exit polls cited in the Florida discussion Miami-Dade County Trump vote total: from 334,000 in 2016 to at least 529,000 - Used to illustrate Trump’s growth among Latinos in Florida Texas heavily Latino district: Biden 52% to Trump 47% - Shapiro cites this as evidence of GOP Latino inroads South Carolina Senate race: Lindsey Graham won by roughly 13 points - He says polling falsely treated it as competitive Black vote share increase: Trump up 4 points among Black men and 4 points among Black women (Edison polling) - Used to support the claim that Trump broadened his coalition

Pivotal Quotes: "Everybody in the polling industry needs to learn to code." — Ben Shapiro: He uses this to mock pollsters after the election results diverged sharply from forecasts "This is the most chaotic day in American political history, or at least that I can remember." — Ben Shapiro: Opening assessment of the unresolved election and delayed vote counting "They don’t hate you because they hate Donald Trump. They hate Donald Trump because they hate you." — Ben Shapiro: He argues Trump’s support is rooted in voters feeling personally targeted by the left and media

Implications: Shapiro says 2020 exposed major failures in polling, journalism, and the Democratic identity-politics model. He argues Republicans now have a path to a durable multiracial coalition, while the media and progressive activists are likely to double down rather than reflect.