Ep. 1134 - The Election Is Only Over When It’s Over

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that the 2020 election was not yet legally finished, criticizes media pressure on Republicans to concede, supports investigating credible fraud claims, and says Biden is likely to win once certification ends. It also highlights media bias, discusses the Pfizer vaccine breakthrough and other COVID developments, and contends that Trump’s coalition and the GOP’s future look stronger than the media admit.

Main Topics: Election not yet legally over: The host insists the race is not formally complete until lawsuits, certifications, and the Electoral College process conclude, though Biden is favored based on current vote leads. Fraud allegations and DOJ investigations: The segment defends Attorney General William Barr’s memo instructing prosecutors to pursue credible election-fraud allegations before certification, framing it as standard integrity enforcement. Media hypocrisy and partisan narratives: The host argues that media outrage over Republican doubts is selective and hypocritical, citing past Democratic skepticism in 2016 and 2020 and examples of media gatekeeping. Polling misses and the 'shy Trump' effect: The episode claims pollsters underestimated Trump because many supporters concealed their views due to social stigma, especially educated Republicans and some Trump voters in elite environments. Pfizer vaccine breakthrough and COVID policy: The show covers Pfizer’s early vaccine results, says the news is major positive progress, and notes the political fight over credit for vaccine development and distribution. Demographic and political implications for Republicans: The host argues Democrats are overconfident in identity-based coalitions, while Republicans may be gaining Latino, black, and suburban support and may benefit long term from media overreach. Alternative media and trust collapse: The episode uses examples from Fox, CNN, MSNBC, and the New York Times to argue that establishment media are biased and losing credibility, boosting alternative outlets like Daily Wire.

Key Arguments: The election is only over when legal challenges, certification, and Electoral College voting are complete, not when the media declare it so. Republicans are justified in pursuing credible fraud allegations because even a small number of illegal or irregular ballots can matter in close states. William Barr’s memo is presented as a neutral effort to preserve electoral confidence, not a partisan intervention for Trump. Public beliefs about election fairness are strongly partisan and correlate with whether one’s preferred candidate wins. The media are hypocritical for condemning Republican skepticism while ignoring or excusing Democratic election doubts in 2016 and earlier. Polling errors likely reflect social pressure and political correctness, especially among college-educated voters who fear social or professional backlash. The Pfizer vaccine announcement is a major scientific and public-health breakthrough, and it is unfair to deny any role to the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed. Democrats risk long-term losses if they continue treating voters as demographic blocs rather than individuals. Alternative media are gaining because mainstream outlets are seen as censorious, biased, and untrustworthy. Republicans’ coalition may actually be expanding if the party continues making gains among Latinos, some black voters, and parts of the white working and middle class.

Data Points: Georgia vote lead: 12,000 votes - Current Biden lead cited as evidence Trump faces an uphill legal path. Arizona vote lead: 15,000 votes - Current Biden lead cited in the presidential count. Nevada vote lead: 36,000 votes - Current Biden lead cited in the presidential count. Pennsylvania vote lead: 45,000 votes - Current Biden lead cited in the presidential count. Michigan affidavits: 131 affidavits - RNC-reported affidavits alleging fraud or irregularities in Michigan. Michigan incident reports: 2,800+ reports - Reports submitted since Election Day, according to Ronna McDaniel. Democrats saying election was free and fair on Oct. 21: 51% - Polling cited to show pre-election Democratic doubts about election integrity. Republicans saying election was free and fair on Oct. 21: 53% - Polling cited to show pre-election Republican doubts about election integrity. Independents saying election was free and fair on Oct. 21: 45% - Polling cited as evidence of broader skepticism before Election Day. Democrats saying election was free and fair after election: 90% - Polling cited to show partisan confidence rose sharply after Biden’s apparent win. Republicans saying election was free and fair after election: 26% - Polling cited to show Republican confidence fell sharply after Trump’s loss. Democrats in 2016 who thought Russians switched votes: 67% - Used to argue post-election skepticism is not unique to Republicans. Presidential votes for Trump: More than 70 million - Used to argue Trump had a massive support base and was the second-highest vote-getter in history. Trump 2020 vote share: 48% - Used in discussion of Republican coalition strength. White college-graduate polling error: 26-31 points - Mismatch between pre-election polls and actual behavior among white graduates. White non-graduate polling accuracy: 29-point gap - Polls were said to have more closely matched actual results among white non-graduates. Pfizer efficacy: More than 90% fewer symptomatic COVID cases - Early analysis of vaccine trial data announced by Pfizer/BioNTech. Vaccine dosing schedule: 2 injections, 3 weeks apart - Trial regimen described in the Pfizer announcement. Eli Lilly treatment age approval: 12 and older - FDA emergency authorization for a COVID-19 therapeutic.

Pivotal Quotes: "The election is over when the election is over." — Ben Shapiro: Used to argue that media declarations do not end the legal process. "Any investigation of claims of irregularities that are true would clearly not impact the outcome of a federal election in an individual state should normally be deferred until after the election certification process is completed." — William Barr: From Barr’s memo explaining why election-fraud inquiries could proceed before certification. "It is a great day for science. It is a great day for humanity." — Albert Bourla: Pfizer CEO reacting to early vaccine trial results.

Implications: The episode frames the post-election period as a legal and media trust crisis, while suggesting Republicans may benefit long term from demographic gains, media backlash, and voter skepticism of establishment narratives.