Ep. 206 - The Final Prediction: Trump vs. Clinton

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Ben Shapiro’s election-eve assessment of the 2016 presidential race, arguing Hillary Clinton is likely to win comfortably while both candidates are deeply unpopular. He condemns the FBI/DNC/media ecosystem as compromised, criticizes Trump’s truthlessness and Clinton’s corruption, and frames the election as a moral failure that has eroded trust in institutions and truth itself.

Main Topics: FBI email review and Clinton corruption (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro discusses James Comey’s review of 650,000 emails found on Anthony Weiner’s laptop, arguing it did not change the decision not to indict Clinton and that broader Clinton corruption remains unresolved. 2016 election forecast and Electoral College paths (Priority: 5/5): He breaks down likely state outcomes and predicts Clinton wins the Electoral College decisively, while explaining Trump’s narrow, fragile path to victory through a near-perfect sweep of contested states. Polls, turnout, and state-by-state analysis (Priority: 5/5): The episode reviews early voting and polling in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to judge turnout effects and possible surprises. Media credibility and DNC/CNN coordination (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro argues the media have lost credibility, citing leaked emails suggesting DNC research staff helped CNN formulate questions, reinforcing his view that journalism is politically compromised. Trump vs. Clinton as a choice between two flawed candidates (Priority: 5/5): He argues Trump’s campaign is built on bluster, grievance, and anti-Hillary messaging, while Clinton’s pitch is weak because she is too unpopular and ethically damaged to inspire enthusiasm. Truth, partisanship, and the decline of political honesty (Priority: 5/5): A major theme is that both campaigns and their supporters subordinate truth to victory, which Shapiro says makes politics morally relativistic and destructive to public trust. Media/culture commentary and lighter recommendations (Priority: 2/5): The episode includes sponsor reads and side commentary on cultural items like Black Mirror, plus satirical reactions to campaign clips, celebrity endorsements, and election-night theatrics.

Key Arguments: Comey’s second email review changed nothing material about the Clinton investigation; the core Clinton email controversy and Clinton Foundation concerns remain. Shapiro believes Comey effectively changed the legal standard in July by emphasizing intent rather than gross negligence, making the non-indictment decision politically and legally suspect. Trump’s victory path is extremely narrow; if he loses key states like North Carolina or Florida, his chances collapse quickly. Clinton is likely to win because Trump lacks a strong ground game and the polling/turnout fundamentals do not support a hidden Trump surge. The media have destroyed their credibility through perceived coordination with the DNC and through years of partisan framing. Both campaigns are dishonest, but Trump’s campaign especially relies on denial, intimidation, and shifting explanations that make him untrustworthy. Truth should matter more than partisan effectiveness; abandoning truth in politics leads to moral relativism and institutional decay. Even if Clinton wins, her presidency is likely to be constrained; even if Trump wins, he would likely be a weak and potentially short-lived president with poor governing capacity.

Data Points: Emails reviewed: 650,000 - FBI review of emails found on Anthony Weiner’s laptop Comey conclusion: No change to prior conclusions - Comey said communications to/from Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State did not alter the FBI’s findings Clinton national lead: About 3 points - Nate Silver cited a roughly three-point national lead for Clinton Clinton win probability: 65.7% - Nate Silver’s estimated chance Clinton wins Clinton Electoral College total: About 270 - Nate Silver said Clinton had about 270 electoral votes in safe/likely territory Trump path states: North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire + one more - Shapiro’s description of Trump’s narrowest route to victory North Carolina early ballots: 3 million - Early voting total cited for North Carolina North Carolina 2012 early ballots: 2.8 million - Comparison point for 2012 early voting in North Carolina North Carolina estimated total voters: 4.6 million - Estimate of eventual turnout in North Carolina Florida ballots cast: 6.1 million - Early voting total in Florida Nevada ballots cast: 770,000 - John Ralston estimate of votes already cast in Nevada Nevada share of total vote: About two-thirds - Shapiro’s interpretation of Nevada early voting volume Trump final electoral vote prediction: 217 - Shapiro’s final Electoral College prediction for Trump Clinton final electoral vote prediction: 322 - Shapiro’s final Electoral College prediction for Clinton Clinton popular vote forecast: 49-50% - Shapiro’s projected Clinton share of the popular vote Trump popular vote forecast: 44% - Shapiro’s projected Trump share of the popular vote Poll spread: 2.9 to 3.3 points - Range Shapiro said the polls showed for Clinton nationally Obama vs. Trump hypothetical: 53 to 41 - Polls cited for a hypothetical Obama-Trump matchup Romney vs. Clinton hypothetical: 50 to 40 - Polls cited for a hypothetical Romney-Clinton matchup

Pivotal Quotes: "all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was Secretary of State had not changed our conclusions" — James Comey: Quoted in Shapiro’s discussion of the FBI email review "Anybody sitting on the sidelines right now or deciding to engage in a protest vote, that's a vote for Trump." — Barack Obama: Obama’s closing argument urging support for Clinton "I feel like I'm being gaslit." — Ben Shapiro: Shapiro describing how both campaigns and partisan media distort facts

Implications: Shapiro argues the election will likely end Clinton’s credibility and further damage trust in the FBI, media, and parties. He warns that unless politics re-centers on truth, future campaigns will remain defined by cynicism, dishonesty, and institutional collapse.