Ep. 208 - President-Elect Trump

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ben Shapiro reflects on his surprise at Trump’s victory, arguing that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, the media, and Senate Democrats were the election’s biggest losers. He urges caution against drawing bad lessons, insists Trump must now prove he can govern conservatively, and frames the result as a rebuke of elite condescension and media credibility.

Main Topics: Trump victory and Shapiro’s reassessment (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro admits he was wrong about Trump’s chances and says the election gives Trump a chance to prove he can become a better president and person. Major losers: Hillary Clinton, Obama, media, Senate Democrats (Priority: 5/5): He argues that Hillary’s unpopularity, Obama’s agenda, media bias, and Democratic Senate hopes were all decisively damaged by the result. What the election data really means (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro rejects simplistic narratives about polls, ground game, or a permanent white-vote realignment, arguing the key story was Hillary’s depressed turnout. Trump’s governing path and risks (Priority: 5/5): He warns Trump may choose between a governance-oriented path and a revenge/tribal path, and says conservatives must hold him accountable either way. Media collapse and loss of trust (Priority: 4/5): A major theme is the public’s distrust of the press, which Shapiro says squandered credibility by repeatedly labeling conservatives as racist or bigoted. Concession speeches and democratic legitimacy (Priority: 4/5): He contrasts Trump’s and Hillary’s post-election remarks, highlighting the irony that Trump sounded more conciliatory while Clinton’s team delayed acceptance. Reaction to ‘not my president’ protests (Priority: 3/5): Shapiro criticizes left-wing protests and insists that both Obama and Trump are legitimate presidents once elected, regardless of disagreement.

Key Arguments: Trump’s win was historic, but it does not prove his movement was a brand-new mass realignment; instead, Hillary Clinton failed to mobilize millions of Obama voters. The real decisive factor was turnout collapse among Democrats: nearly 7 million Obama voters did not show up for Clinton. Polls were not universally broken; many national and state polls were close, and the main error was assuming Clinton would match Obama’s turnout. The media lost credibility by repeatedly portraying Republicans as racist/sexist/bigoted, making those attacks less effective in 2016. Trump now has a strong opportunity to enact conservative policies because Republicans control the White House, House, Senate, governors, and many state legislatures. Conservatives should not give Trump unconditional loyalty; they should praise good actions and criticize bad ones. The election was partly a rejection of elite contempt toward ordinary Americans, especially the idea that the country is fundamentally racist or bad. Trump can either grow into office and become more sober, or revert to the more chaotic behavior seen during the campaign; accountability is essential either way.

Data Points: Popular votes won by Donald Trump: about 59–60 million - Used to argue Trump did not massively outperform Romney in raw turnout. Popular votes won by Mitt Romney in 2012: about 61 million - Comparison point for challenging the idea of a brand-new Trump mass movement. Obama voters lost by Hillary Clinton: nearly 7 million - Central explanation for Clinton’s defeat. Democratic vote drop from 2008 to 2016: about 10 million - Shapiro says Clinton underperformed Obama dramatically over two cycles. Obama vote drop from 2008 to 2012: about 3–4 million - Historical comparison showing 2016 decline was even worse for Democrats. Black vote for Trump: 8% - Trump improved on Romney’s share among Black voters. Black vote for Romney: 5% - Comparison used to show Trump’s relative improvement. Hispanic vote for Trump: 29% - Shapiro notes this is unusually high for a Republican and reflects Clinton’s weakness. Hispanic vote for Romney: lower than 29% - Used as comparative evidence of Trump’s minority support. Exit poll on media trust: 76% - Percentage of voters who thought the media cared more about making money than telling the truth. Senate seats vulnerable to Democrats in 2018: 5 - Shapiro says Republicans could gain a dominant Senate majority if they win near that number. Electoral-vote/popular-vote anomaly: 5th time in U.S. presidential history - He notes Trump won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. State polling accuracy examples: Right on in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire - Used to argue that polling failure was limited to certain Midwestern states. Target states with polling misses: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania - States where he says polling missed Clinton’s turnout collapse. D+4 electorate: D plus 4 - He says the electorate was unusually Republican-leaning for a presidential year, but not enough to invalidate polling broadly.

Pivotal Quotes: "I was dead wrong. I was dead wrong about this election." — Ben Shapiro: Opening admission that he misjudged Trump’s chances. "Now I pray fervently that Donald Trump proves me wrong again about him as a human being." — Ben Shapiro: His central hope for Trump’s presidency and personal change. "This was a white lash." — Van Jones: Quoted by Shapiro as an example of media/left reaction to Trump’s victory.

Implications: The episode frames Trump’s win as both a warning and an opportunity: conservatives may gain policy victories, but Trump must be watched closely. It also suggests the media and Democrats misread the electorate, and future politics will hinge on turnout, legitimacy, and whether Trump governs or merely fights.