Ep. 390 - That Giant Republican Sucking Sound

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ben Shapiro argues that Roy Moore’s Alabama primary win and Bob Corker’s retirement reflect a long-running anti-establishment Republican revolt, not Trump’s personal political dominance. He says Trump is effective at culture-war battles like the NFL anthem fight, but less capable of shaping electoral outcomes or governing the GOP caucus. The episode also pivots to campus free-speech conflict, media overreach on Puerto Rico, and a brief theological reflection on Yom Kippur and self-change.

Main Topics: Roy Moore’s win as anti-establishment Republican backlash (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro frames Moore’s victory over Luther Strange as evidence that Republican voters are rejecting establishment figures and McConnell-aligned politics. He argues Moore is not a Breitbart-created phenomenon but a longtime Alabama conservative icon whose candidacy fits the broader Tea Party-era insurgency. Trumpism vs. the broader conservative movement (Priority: 5/5): He contends the anti-establishment movement predates Trump and will outlast him. Trump is described as a symbol and litmus test for loyalty rather than the movement’s true architect or organizer, making 'Trumpism' an incoherent label for a deeper Republican realignment. Culture war success: NFL anthem controversy (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro says Trump is strong when fighting symbolic cultural battles, especially the anthem protest issue, where public opinion largely supports standing for the flag even if many oppose firing players. He criticizes both Trump and Steve Bannon for escalating and politicizing a unifying issue. Democratic and media overreaction to Trump (Priority: 4/5): He mocks Democratic reactions such as kneeling in solidarity and claims the press is trying to turn Puerto Rico into 'Trump’s Katrina.' He argues the media and Democrats keep making Trump the center of every story, even when the underlying issue should stand on its own. Senate power dynamics and Mitch McConnell (Priority: 4/5): The show emphasizes that Roy Moore’s entry into the Senate and Bob Corker’s exit would weaken McConnell’s control and strengthen the GOP’s right flank. Shapiro views this as useful for pushing the Senate toward more conservative, anti-establishment positions. Free speech at the University of Utah (Priority: 4/5): He previews a campus appearance amid threats from Students for a Democratic Society and praises university/police protection of free expression. The segment also includes Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ Georgetown speech defending Shapiro and criticizing campus speech suppression. Bible talk: prayer, habit, and self-transformation (Priority: 3/5): Shapiro closes with a reflection on Yom Kippur, arguing prayer is meant to change the person praying rather than God. He connects ritual prayer to habit formation, psychological flow, and self-improvement as the path to a better life.

Key Arguments: Roy Moore’s victory was driven less by Breitbart/Bannon and more by Moore’s own long-standing popularity in Alabama and the state’s conservative political culture. The anti-establishment Republican wave began with the Tea Party years before Trump and includes figures like Ted Cruz, Dave Brat, and Christine O’Donnell. Trump is not the leader of the movement; he is a symbol riding a pre-existing insurgency and is useful mainly as a loyalty test. Trump has little electoral 'coattail' power; Republican candidates often outperform him, and his endorsement is not decisive in the way opposition to him can be. McConnell is weakened by a fractious Senate caucus, and adding more hard-right senators could constrain establishment power. Trump is effective in cultural symbolism, especially the NFL anthem debate, because he aligns with widely held views that players should stand for the national anthem. Despite that, Trump and Bannon worsen polarization by turning the anthem into a partisan fight instead of a national unifier. Democrats and media figures respond to Trump with theatrics and exaggeration, which Shapiro says makes them politically foolish and self-defeating. Campus activists claiming free-speech motives while attempting to shut down speeches are portrayed as hypocritical and anti–First Amendment. Prayer, in Shapiro’s religious framing, is not about changing God but about training oneself through habit and moral discipline.

Data Points: Roy Moore race: won Alabama Senate primary - Presented as a proxy battle over Trumpism and the GOP establishment Luther Strange vote alignment with Trump: 92% - Shapiro notes Strange generally supported Trump despite being treated as an establishment figure House Republican majority: 23 seats - Used to contrast House maneuverability with the Senate’s narrow margin Senate Republican seats: 52 - Shapiro argues McConnell can lose only a few senators before losing control Tennessee last Democratic senator: 1994 - Used to argue Bob Corker’s retirement is unlikely to make the seat seriously competitive Reuters-Ipsos poll on firing kneeling players: 57% of adults opposed firing - Cited to show mixed public opinion on the NFL controversy Democrats opposing Trump’s firing comments: 82% - Party split in Reuters-Ipsos polling Republicans opposing Trump’s firing comments: 29% - Party split in Reuters-Ipsos polling Adults who almost always stand for the anthem: 85% - Shows broad social norm in favor of standing Adults who always put hand over heart: 74% - Another indicator of prevailing patriotic behavior Adults saying athletes should be required to stand: 58% - Used to show majority support for mandatory standing Adults supporting athletes not standing: 40% - Up from 28% last year, indicating increased polarization Support for anthem protest last year: 28% - Baseline for comparison with current 40% support Yom Kippur fast length: 25 hours - Described as the holiest day in the Jewish calendar Som Gedalia fast timing: same week as Yom Kippur pre-fast - Mentioned as a second fast within the week

Pivotal Quotes: "The great and glorious movement existed long before Trump." — Ben Shapiro: Argument that the anti-establishment Republican wave predates Trump and is not synonymous with him "Trump is good at one thing and one thing only, and that is starting culture wars and winning culture wars." — Ben Shapiro: Summary of Trump’s strengths in symbolic political fights like the NFL anthem controversy "The world doesn’t revolve around Trump." — Ben Shapiro: Closing argument that media and political actors over-center Trump instead of focusing on substantive issues

Implications: Listeners are urged to see Republican politics as an establishment-vs-insurgency struggle beyond Trump personally. The episode predicts more Senate pressure on McConnell, continued culture-war polarization, and ongoing campus speech battles.