Ep. 436 - The Tide Rolls Over Roy Moore

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Roy Moore’s shocking loss to Doug Jones in Alabama, which Ben Shapiro frames as a consequence of Moore’s disqualifying candidacy, Steve Bannon’s failed influence, and Republican complacency. Shapiro argues the result is a warning for both parties, previews broader 2018 GOP risks, critiques media and FBI bias allegations, and closes with commentary on politics, culture, and a Bible passage about waiting for better leadership.

Main Topics: Roy Moore’s Alabama defeat (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro says Moore lost because he was an unacceptable candidate, not because of a single factor like write-in votes, and that many Republicans simply stayed home rather than support him. Blame placed on Steve Bannon and GOP elites (Priority: 5/5): He argues Bannon disastrously elevated Moore, misread the electorate, and helped drag Trump and the RNC into a losing race, while McConnell bears only partial responsibility for primary maneuvering. Lessons for Republicans heading into 2018 (Priority: 5/5): The Alabama result is presented as a warning sign that GOP turnout and candidate quality problems could lead to major losses in the midterms and possibly the Senate. Democratic overconfidence and turnout dynamics (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro warns Democrats not to assume Alabama proves they can run anyone anywhere, but notes their success reflects strong black turnout and anti-Moore mobilization. FBI/Mueller investigation credibility (Priority: 4/5): He highlights text messages from Peter Strzok as evidence of anti-Trump bias inside the FBI, arguing this could undermine the legitimacy of the Russia investigation. Media bias and Trump/Gillibrand controversy (Priority: 3/5): Shapiro criticizes media coverage of Trump’s comments toward Kirsten Gillibrand, saying Democrats and journalists deliberately misread the remark as sexualized. Culture and biblical reflection (Priority: 3/5): He closes with commentary on Barbie’s politicization and a Bible reading from Isaiah about trusting God and waiting for better leadership instead of relying on bad men.

Key Arguments: Roy Moore lost because he was an intrinsically weak and disqualifying candidate, and voters have a line they will not cross even in a deep-red state. Republicans cannot blame only Mitch McConnell, write-in votes, or “backstabbing”; the deeper problem was nominating Moore at all. Steve Bannon’s political judgment is portrayed as catastrophically wrong, especially in pushing Moore and encouraging Trump to back him. Trump’s 2016 victory was an accomplishment, not a transferable strategy for midterm or Senate races; presidential coattails do not automatically exist. The Alabama result is a major warning for Republicans because the party cannot rely only on Trump or existing base turnout to win 2018. Democrats should not assume they can win everywhere with any candidate; Alabama was exceptional because Moore was uniquely bad and turnout surged among black voters. Text messages from Peter Strzok and Lisa Page suggest anti-Trump bias and even an “insurance policy” mentality inside the FBI, damaging trust in the Mueller probe. Media outrage over Trump’s Gillibrand tweet is exaggerated and inconsistent with how similar remarks were treated when aimed at other politicians. Cultural institutions like Barbie are being politicized in ways Shapiro считает inappropriate for children. The Bible passage from Isaiah is used to argue that better outcomes come from patience, trust, and adherence to values rather than embracing bad options out of desperation.

Data Points: Alabama Senate race margin: about 20,000 votes - Shapiro says Doug Jones won by roughly this amount out of about 1.2 million votes cast. Votes cast in Alabama Senate race: about 1.2 million - Used to frame the narrowness of Moore’s defeat. Doug Jones support relative to Hillary Clinton vote: 94% - Shapiro says Jones received 94% of the votes Clinton won in Alabama. Roy Moore support relative to Trump vote: 49% - He claims Moore won only 49% of Trump’s Alabama vote total, showing Republicans stayed home. Black electorate share in Alabama: 30% - Shapiro highlights unusually high Black turnout as a key factor in Jones’s victory. 2018 generic congressional ballot advantage: Democrats +10.3% - He cites the RealClearPolitics average to show the national environment favors Democrats. Average swing in special elections: +16 points toward Democrats - Shapiro says several special elections shifted sharply Democratic in 2017. Specific special election swings: CA-34 +18, KS-4 +23, MT special +15, GA-6 +6, SC-5 +16, Alabama Senate +31 - He lists these as evidence of a broad Democratic trend. Midterm historical average loss for party in power: 25 House seats - He notes this post–World War II average to warn Republicans about midterms. Republican Senate majority at the time: 51 seats - Shapiro says losing even one more seat could cost GOP control if other races break poorly. Corporate tax rate in the tax deal: 21% - He reports the emerging tax agreement would cut the corporate rate from 35% to 21%. Top individual tax rate in the tax deal: 37% - Reported as part of the Republican tax package negotiations. Special-election Democratic Senate win probability: 20–30% - Shapiro estimates Democrats’ odds of taking the Senate if the trend continues. FBI text message date: August 15, 2016 - Strzok texted about an ‘insurance policy’ against Trump’s election on this date. Trump presidential approval cited: 30s - He describes Trump as “riding in the 30s” despite a good economy and stock market.

Pivotal Quotes: "“There is a line for voters. There's a point where voters just will not show up for you.”" — Ben Shapiro: Explaining why Roy Moore’s unacceptability mattered more than partisan loyalty. "“It's like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you're 40.”" — Peter Strzok (text message quoted by Ben Shapiro): Shapiro uses this FBI text to argue anti-Trump bias and possible investigative corruption. "“Trump is an accomplishment. It’s not a strategy.”" — Ben Shapiro: His core warning that Trump’s 2016 win cannot be copied mechanically in future elections.

Implications: Republicans must improve candidate quality, pass legislation, and stop mistaking Trump loyalty for a universal winning formula; otherwise 2018 could bring major losses. Democrats, meanwhile, should not overread Alabama into a national mandate.