Ep. 643 - The Republicans’ Best Friend

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that GOP midterm prospects improved because Democrats became politically toxic on Kavanaugh, protests, immigration, and gender issues, while Trump benefited from a stronger economy and rising approval. It also criticizes media coverage of transgender policy, defends border enforcement, and ends with a Federalist Papers discussion about legislative power and the modern regulatory state.

Main Topics: Midterm polls and Trump’s rising approval (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro cites new Wall Street Journal/NBC polling to argue that Democratic overreach and a strong economy are boosting Republican prospects and lifting Trump’s approval to a new high. Democratic protest culture and political backlash (Priority: 5/5): He portrays Democratic activists as rude, unstable, and self-defeating, pointing to confrontations with Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi as examples that energize conservatives. Beto O’Rourke enthusiasm and media hype (Priority: 4/5): The show mocks theatrical Beto fandom, arguing that Democrats are manufacturing excitement around a weak candidate through awkward chants and fan videos. Immigration caravan and border enforcement (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro frames the migrant caravan as an organized challenge to sovereignty, insisting the U.S. must enforce borders, reject illegal entry, and stop financing governments that enable migration pressure. Transgender policy and biological sex (Priority: 5/5): He disputes the New York Times framing of the Department of Education’s proposed Title IX definition, arguing that law should rely on biological sex rather than self-defined gender identity. Marriage, sex, and family stability (Priority: 3/5): He cites research suggesting greater marital happiness among people with fewer sexual partners and argues that the sexual revolution’s promises were false. Federalist 48 and separation of powers (Priority: 4/5): The episode closes with Madison’s warning about legislative usurpation and a critique of the modern administrative state, which Shapiro says has weakened Congress’s role.

Key Arguments: Democrats are helping Republicans by appearing extreme, vindictive, and unserious in public, especially after the Kavanaugh fight and protests against GOP leaders. Trump’s approval is improving because the economy is strong and he is perceived as a disruptive change agent rather than a traditional incumbent. Republicans are gaining on the issues that matter most in swing districts, especially the economy, trade, and immigration. Border security is a prerequisite for national sovereignty; asylum should be pursued through legal channels, not mass crossings. The media’s transgender framing conflates biological sex with gender identity and misrepresents what Title IX law actually covers. Civil rights law should protect against sex discrimination, not require institutions to accept self-identification as overriding biology. Promiscuity is linked in the episode to lower marital happiness, while monogamy and sexual restraint are presented as socially beneficial. The modern regulatory state has shifted power away from Congress, undermining the constitutional balance Madison described.

Data Points: Trump approval rating: 47% - Wall Street Journal/NBC poll; described as Trump’s highest approval in office Trump disapproval rating: 49% - Wall Street Journal/NBC poll Republican trust on economy over Democrats: +17 points - Shapiro says the margin is historically large in polling Interest in midterms among registered voters: Nearly two-thirds high interest - Wall Street Journal/NBC poll; highest ever recorded in this midterm survey since 2006 Republican voter interest: 68% very interested - Wall Street Journal/NBC poll Democratic voter interest: 72% very interested - Wall Street Journal/NBC poll Party preferred to control Congress among likely voters: 50% Democrats, 41% Republicans - Wall Street Journal/NBC poll Women preferring Democratic-controlled Congress: 57% to 32% - Survey shows women favor Democrats by 25 points Men preferring Republican-controlled Congress: 52% to 38% - Survey shows men favor Republicans by 14 points Urban voters preferring Democratic-controlled Congress: +36 points - Urban voters strongly favor Democrats Rural voters preferring GOP control: +31 points - Rural voters strongly favor Republicans Suburban voters on control of Congress: 44% GOP, 45% Democrat - Suburban residents are nearly evenly split Trade issue advantage for Republicans: +17 points - Republicans preferred on trade, up from 8 points in August Original increase in Democratic lead: +13 points registered / +6 points likely voters - Shapiro compares to last month’s poll

Pivotal Quotes: "Democrats suck at everything." — Ben Shapiro: Opening explanation for why Republicans are benefiting politically "When Democrats spend weeks demonstrating they don’t care about due process... very good for Republicans." — Ben Shapiro: Argument that Democratic misconduct boosts GOP prospects "No person in the United States shall, on the basis of sex, be excluded from participation in... any education program" — Education Department / Title IX text as quoted by Shapiro: Used to argue the law concerns biological sex rather than self-defined gender identity

Implications: The episode frames 2018 politics as a referendum on Democratic excess and administrative overreach. It suggests Republicans can win by emphasizing borders, biology, and economic performance while Democrats risk backlash from cultural radicalism and protest politics.