Ep. 657 - The Slow Wave

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on the 2018 midterms, arguing Democrats likely achieved a stronger-than-expected blue wave as late-counted ballots in Florida and Arizona shifted key races. Shapiro warns Republicans face a generational/suburban problem tied to Trump’s style, while Democrats may also misread their gains and overcorrect toward progressivism. The show ends with a mailbag, book/fitness/politics advice, and sponsor spots.

Main Topics: Post-midterm vote counting and the 'blue wave' (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro revises his initial read of the midterms, saying late ballot counts suggest Democrats may end up with as many as 40 House seats and potentially flip key Senate races. Florida ballot-count controversy and recounts (Priority: 5/5): He devotes extensive attention to Broward and Palm Beach counties, accusing election officials of poor administration and delayed reporting that could affect the Rick Scott, DeSantis, and agriculture commissioner races. Republican strategic warning for 2020 (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues Republicans cannot rely on Trump’s magic or base-only politics; he says suburban voters and younger voters are moving away from the GOP and that the party needs a real outreach strategy. Democratic nomination strategy and moderation vs progressivism (Priority: 4/5): He suggests Democrats would be smarter to nominate moderates like Joe Biden or Amy Klobuchar, but predicts they may instead double down on anti-Trump progressivism and candidates like Beto O’Rourke. Trump versus the press and Mueller backlash (Priority: 4/5): The show criticizes Trump’s habit of attacking journalists in public, saying his behavior may be factually understandable but politically counterproductive in suburban districts, while Democrats exaggerate claims about the Mueller investigation. Mailbag: parenting, culture, and practical advice (Priority: 3/5): The Q&A covers classical music exposure for children, racism and polarization, Supreme Court retirements, Electoral College defense, mass shooting prevention, travel, writing books, public service ethics, flu shots, Ohio politics, and impeachment standards. Things I like / things I hate (Priority: 2/5): The episode closes with a personal parenting anecdote inspired by Drew Brees and a criticism of Snoop Dogg’s White House protest stunt.

Key Arguments: Late ballot counting suggests Democrats may have performed better than first reported, turning a mild wave into a substantial one. Broward and Palm Beach election officials are portrayed as opaque, disorganized, and possibly violating Florida reporting rules by finding thousands of ballots after Election Day. Rick Scott’s lawsuit is framed as a necessary response to prevent election outcomes from being altered by late-counted ballots without proper oversight. Republicans face a real generational and suburban-voter problem; Trump’s rhetoric may energize the base but alienates the voters who decide competitive races. Young voters in particular are said to dislike Trump, making them a long-term danger to GOP prospects. Democrats should, in theory, nominate more moderate national figures to consolidate gains, but Shapiro believes they may overestimate the appeal of progressive confrontation politics. Trump’s attacks on the press may be emotionally justified but are politically unhelpful because they reinforce negative perceptions among persuadable suburban voters. Claims that Trump has destroyed the Mueller investigation are described as unsupported by evidence; the investigation is still expected to conclude soon. The Electoral College is defended as a structural safeguard against total urban domination of national politics. The best way to prevent mass shootings, according to Shapiro, is armed security in highly trafficked public spaces and institutions. College and civic engagement advice emphasizes honesty about compromise, explicit values, and practical political strategy.

Data Points: Potential House gain for Democrats: as many as 40 seats - Shapiro says late-counted votes could push Democrats to a stronger House result than initially expected. Initial expected House gain: 30-34 seats - Early election-night expectations before late vote tallies changed the picture. Florida Senate margin risk: Republican margin drops from +3 to +2 - If Kyrsten Sinema defeats Martha McSally in Arizona, Republicans lose one Senate seat advantage. Late votes found in Broward County: 78,000 - Rick Scott says Broward County discovered this many new votes after Election Day. Late votes found in Palm Beach County: 15,000 - Additional ballots reported in Palm Beach County during the late count. Time after polls closed: 43 hours - Marco Rubio cites counties still counting and refusing to disclose outstanding ballots. Time after polls closed in Scott’s complaint: over 48 hours - Rick Scott argues ballots were still being found and counted beyond statutory deadlines. CNN Texas exit poll: born in Texas: 51% O'Rourke, 48% Cruz - Used to argue that younger native Texans leaned more Democratic. CNN Texas exit poll: moved to Texas: 42% O'Rourke, 57% Cruz - Used to argue newer residents were more Republican. Audience composition claim: 70% under age 35 - Shapiro references his show’s young audience while discussing generational politics. Keeps pricing: $10 to $35 per month - Hair-loss treatment sponsor pricing mentioned in ad copy. Mint Mobile ad price: $15 per month - Wireless sponsor offer highlighted early in the episode. MyPatriotSupply audience claim: 1 million hardworking Americans - Sponsor ad claims many Americans have become more self-reliant through the company.

Pivotal Quotes: "it looks more and more like a slow-moving blue wave" — Ben Shapiro: His updated assessment of the 2018 midterm results as late ballots continue to be counted. "We don't know how many more votes they're going to come up with" — Rick Scott: Shapiro quotes Scott describing uncertainty around late-counted Florida ballots. "the battle is in suburbia" — Ben Shapiro: His central strategic takeaway for both parties heading into 2020.

Implications: The episode frames 2018 as a warning shot: Republicans must adapt to suburban and generational shifts, while Democrats risk overreading anti-Trump energy and embracing unelectable progressivism. The 2020 race, in Shapiro’s view, will hinge on moderation, turnout, and messaging discipline.