Ep. 673 - In Like Flynn

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Mueller-related developments, especially Michael Flynn’s no-jail sentencing recommendation and what his cooperation may mean for the Russia probe, while also covering a sharp stock-market selloff driven by yield-curve inversion and Trump’s tariff rhetoric. Shapiro also critiques the national mourning over George H.W. Bush, discusses 2020 Democratic prospects, celebrates a free-speech victory at Berkeley, and closes with cultural/political commentary on PETA, jury selection, and conservative media shifts.

Main Topics: Michael Flynn sentencing and Mueller investigation (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro reviews the DOJ/Mueller memo recommending no jail time for Flynn due to substantial cooperation, while emphasizing the heavily redacted filing and the unresolved question of what Flynn told investigators. Stock market plunge and yield-curve inversion (Priority: 5/5): He explains the Dow’s near-800-point drop as a reaction to recession fears, bond-market signals, and uncertainty created by U.S.-China trade tensions and Trump’s tariff threats. Trump tariffs and market unpredictability (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues Trump’s tariff enthusiasm is economically misguided and destabilizing, warning that inconsistent trade policy undermines investor confidence and long-term growth. 2020 Democratic field and authenticity (Priority: 4/5): He mocks several Democratic contenders and frames the emerging primary as a test of authenticity, suggesting figures like Beto O’Rourke or Michelle Obama could outperform more robotic candidates. George H.W. Bush mourning and the presidency (Priority: 3/5): Shapiro praises Bush as a good man while echoing criticism that national days of mourning for presidents create an overly monarchic view of the executive branch. Conservative media and free speech wins (Priority: 4/5): He discusses the Weekly Standard’s likely shutdown and a Berkeley settlement that rolls back restrictive speech and security-fee policies, presenting the latter as a major free-speech victory. Cultural commentary and race-related criticism (Priority: 3/5): The show closes with criticism of PETA’s language-policing and a broader argument that discussions of race, jury selection, and political bias are often oversimplified as racism.

Key Arguments: Flynn’s case was weak at the start because talking with the Russian ambassador during a transition was not inherently criminal; the charged offense was lying to investigators, not the underlying contact. Mueller’s no-jail recommendation and redactions suggest Flynn provided meaningful assistance, but not enough information is public to know whether it implicates Trump directly. The Flynn memo alone does not establish Trump-Russia collusion; at most it may support broader claims of bad political behavior and possible obstruction-related concerns. Trump’s tariff messaging injects harmful uncertainty into markets; tariffs are portrayed as economically counterproductive and historically damaging. The stock selloff reflects recession anxiety amplified by yield-curve inversion, which Shapiro explains as a classic warning sign when short-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds. Democrats often overrate ideological signaling and underweight authenticity; candidates like Gillibrand are mocked as performative and mechanistic, while Trump is framed as unusually authentic. A free speech settlement at Berkeley shows that litigation can defeat speech restrictions and security-fee tactics used to chill conservative campus events. PETA’s language reforms are mocked as performative and inconsistent, especially given claims that the organization itself euthanizes many of the animals it acquires. Debates over jury selection and race should account for practical strategy and available information, not automatically be collapsed into accusations of racism. The Weekly Standard’s troubles are presented as evidence of conservative-media realignment and the tension between anti-Trump purity and policy-minded conservatism.

Data Points: Dow Jones Industrial Average change: -799 points - Largest one-day decline since October rout, amid recession fears and trade concerns. Dow Jones percentage change: -3.1% - Tuesday stock-market drop. S&P 500 percentage change: -3.2% - Broad market decline during the selloff. NASDAQ percentage change: -3.8% - NASDAQ fell back into correction territory. NASDAQ closing level: 7,158.43 - Closing level cited after the decline. Treasury yield inversion: 3-year yield surpassed 5-year yield - Bond-market inversion discussed as recession warning. Tariff revenue: $7.1 billion - Amount the U.S. reportedly took in tariffs, used to argue the figure is economically insignificant. Flynn interviews: 19 interviews - Number of times Flynn sat with the special counsel and DOJ offices. Flynn guilty plea date: December 1, 2017 - Date Flynn pled guilty to lying to federal investigators. Berkeley settlement payment: $70,000 - UC Berkeley must reimburse attorney’s fees in the free-speech case. PETA adoption rate cited: 1% - Referenced from outside reporting on PETA’s animal outcomes. PETA animals acquired in 2014: 2,626 - Number of animals acquired in that year, per cited reporting. PETA animals killed in 2014: 2,324 - Animals put down from that year’s acquisitions. PETA animals killed in 2015: 1,500 - Additional animals reportedly euthanized the following year. PETA animals killed last year: 1,442 - Another cited annual tally of euthanized animals. Podcast ranking: #9 on iTunes - Shapiro thanks listeners and cites the show’s ranking among podcasts on Earth.

Pivotal Quotes: "He was not a king. He was not a pope. He did not found or save or design the republic." — Charles Cook (quoted by Ben Shapiro): Used to argue against treating presidential deaths like monarchical events and national shutdowns. "I am a tariff man." — Donald Trump (quoted by Ben Shapiro): Cited as evidence of Trump’s inconsistent and economically harmful trade posture. "Our future is female, intersectional, powered by our belief in one another." — Kirsten Gillibrand (quoted by Ben Shapiro): Mocked as an inauthentic Democratic slogan and an example of performative campaign messaging.

Implications: The episode frames 2018 politics as driven by Mueller uncertainty, market fragility, and a Democratic field still searching for authenticity. It suggests conservative speech battles may be winnable in court, but Trump-era trade volatility and party realignment will keep markets and politics unsettled.