Ep. 681 - Down The Rat Hole

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on three major political battles: Trump’s legal exposure in the Michael Cohen case, a looming government fight over border wall funding, and a Texas judge’s ruling that could invalidate Obamacare. Shapiro argues Trump’s messaging is often self-defeating, Democrats are strategically using these fights to expand government, and the media and left tolerate extremism while hypocritically policing conservatives.

Main Topics: Michael Cohen and Trump’s legal exposure (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro dissects Trump’s tweets attacking Cohen, argues the president is making his legal situation worse with mob-style rhetoric, and explains the campaign-finance and hush-money theory behind the investigation. Border wall funding and shutdown brinkmanship (Priority: 5/5): The show critiques both Democrats’ refusal to fund the wall and the Trump administration’s messaging. Shapiro says Republicans have a winning political position but are undermining it through poor PR, especially around immigration and child-death coverage. Texas ruling against Obamacare (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro explains Judge Reed O’Connor’s ruling that the ACA’s individual mandate became unconstitutional after the penalty was repealed, but he doubts the decision will stand and warns Democrats will use it to push single-payer healthcare. Media bias and conservative ghettoization (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro attacks major outlets like the Washington Post and New York Times for claiming to support conservatism while refusing to hire mainstream conservatives and for amplifying radical left or anti-Semitic voices. Anti-Semitism and cultural double standards on the left (Priority: 4/5): He cites Alice Walker promoting anti-Semitic material in the New York Times and argues that the left repeatedly excuses extremist views while demanding stricter standards from conservatives. Identity politics and elite victimhood rhetoric (Priority: 3/5): Shapiro criticizes Elizabeth Warren’s commencement speech at Morgan State as patronizing identity politics that tells successful graduates they are victims and uses racial grievance for political gain. Brand, subscriptions, and show promotions (Priority: 2/5): The episode includes extended promotions for Birch Gold, Policy Genius, HomeLight, and Bravo Company, plus praise for Sam Harris leaving Patreon and a plug for Daily Wire subscriptions.

Key Arguments: Trump’s attack on Michael Cohen is counterproductive; calling him a ‘rat’ makes Trump look mob-like and suggests he should focus on a simple legal defense instead. The legal issue in the Cohen matter is less about whether Trump behaved badly and more about whether any hush-money payments were campaign-related and thus illegal. Rudy Giuliani’s stronger argument is that even if Trump did everything alleged, it may still not be criminal because the payments could have been motivated by family/marital concerns as well as the election. Republicans are winning the border debate substantively, because Democrats are openly opposed to wall funding; however, the administration’s statements about shutdowns and family separations weaken the message. Stephen Miller and Trump should frame border deaths and separation controversies as consequences of illegal immigration, criminal cartels, and court rulings—not as opportunities for inflammatory rhetoric. The Obamacare ruling is legally plausible under the logic of the individual mandate, but politically it gives Democrats an opening to say Republicans are destroying coverage and to push single-payer. Shapiro argues that the media’s claim to support ‘real conservatism’ is hollow because mainstream conservative voices are systematically excluded from elite outlets. He contends the left tolerates or promotes radical and anti-Semitic ideas that would be disqualifying on the right, citing Alice Walker and the New York Times as examples. Elizabeth Warren’s speech exemplifies manipulative identity politics: it assumes racial victimhood and tells accomplished students the system is rigged against them regardless of merit.

Data Points: National debt interest projection: $1.2 trillion - Amount owed to other countries and in unfunded debt, used to motivate gold/precious-metals diversification. Interest on national debt vs Medicare: By end of 2019, more than Medicare - Economists’ projection cited in the opening ad segment. Interest on national debt vs defense: By 2023, more than national defense - Economists’ projection cited in the opening ad segment. Obamacare ruling: 20 state plaintiffs - Judge Reed O’Connor ruled for states challenging the ACA after repeal of the individual mandate penalty. ACA mandate penalty: Reduced to zero in 2017 tax reform - Key legal basis for arguing the mandate is no longer a tax and is unconstitutional. CNN poll: About half of Americans not interested in impeachment - Used to argue that impeachment momentum against Trump is limited. Border wall funding demand: $5 billion - Referenced in Stephen Miller’s remarks about what the administration would do to build the wall. Child death in Border Patrol custody: 7-year-old girl - Used to discuss the border crisis and messaging around immigration enforcement. Unaccompanied or accompanied children at border: 100,000 - Stephen Miller cites last year’s figure to argue the border crisis is severe. Texas butterfly refuge size: 100 acres - Washington Post op-ed about the border wall potentially affecting a butterfly center. Land reportedly sealed off by wall: 70 acres - Butterfly center op-ed claims wall would cut through refuge land. School visitors to butterfly center: 6,000 per year - Used in the Washington Post op-ed criticizing the wall’s impact. Iowa poll for Elizabeth Warren: 3% - Shapiro cites this as evidence that Warren is politically weak despite high name recognition. Elizabeth Warren name recognition in Iowa: 84% - Used to highlight her poor standing in early primary polling. Patreon price: $9.99/month or $99/year - Daily Wire subscription pitch referencing show access and perks. Real estate transaction claim: Over $6 billion - HomeLight promotional statistic about facilitated transactions. HomeLight buyers/sellers matched: 247,000+ - Promotional statistic for HomeLight’s agent referral service. Home sales comparison: Top agents sell homes in 8 days faster and 9% above asking price - HomeLight promotional statistic on agent performance.

Pivotal Quotes: "You dirty rat." — Ben Shapiro: Describing Trump’s tweet attacking Michael Cohen and criticizing the president’s rhetoric. "We're not paying for any wall at all for no reason, no, not happening." — Chuck Schumer: Used to illustrate Democrats’ hard opposition to border-wall funding. "As I predicted all along, Obamacare has been struck down as an unconstitutional disaster." — Donald Trump: Trump’s celebratory tweet after the Texas court ruling on the ACA.

Implications: Shapiro predicts continued legal and political warfare: Trump’s messaging may worsen his legal and policy fights, Democrats will leverage ACA uncertainty for single-payer, and media polarization will deepen as conservatives seek independent platforms.