Ep. 751 - The Roadmap To 2020

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that recent Wisconsin and Pennsylvania elections reveal Democrats’ 2020 path depends on moderation, not left-wing escalation. Shapiro says Biden is electable but under attack because he conflicts with the party’s radical shift. He also critiques media bias, progressive victimhood expansion, and climate politics, while highlighting Trump’s advantage if Democrats misread the map.

Main Topics: Wisconsin special election as a 2020 bellwether (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro uses the Wisconsin Supreme Court race to argue the state remains evenly divided and that conservatives can still mobilize strongly even after 2018 losses. He frames the result as evidence Trump is competitive in a crucial swing state. Pennsylvania suburban Democratic win through moderation (Priority: 5/5): The Pam Iovino victory is presented as proof that Democrats can win blue-collar suburbs only when they run centrist, veteran, bread-and-butter candidates rather than hard-left figures. Democratic primary attack on Joe Biden (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues Biden is being targeted because he is the party’s most electable candidate and does not fit the party’s leftward trajectory. He frames the accusations as both politically motivated and consistent with Biden’s own past positions on due process and harassment. Expansion of ‘war on women’ and victimhood politics (Priority: 4/5): The show criticizes progressive efforts to broaden sexism from concrete abuse to vague feelings of discomfort, disrespect, or systemic disadvantage, saying this tactic is designed to create more victim categories. Media bias and selective accountability (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro repeatedly argues that mainstream media protect Democrats and downplay or erase scandals involving Obama-era figures while weaponizing standards against conservatives and Trump. Trump’s 2020 strategy against socialism and the left (Priority: 4/5): Trump is portrayed as benefiting from Democratic overreach, especially around socialism, the Green New Deal, and attacks on Biden, because these positions alienate swing voters. Climate policy and market-based carbon capture (Priority: 3/5): The episode closes by praising carbon capture technology as a practical solution while accusing environmental activists of having redistributionist motives beyond emission reduction.

Key Arguments: Wisconsin remains a dead-even battleground, so any shift in turnout or candidate quality can affect the presidency. Democrats win in purple areas when they field moderate, veteran, working-class-friendly candidates like Pam Iovino. Joe Biden is the most electable Democrat in 2020 polls, which is why more radical Democrats want him out. The allegations against Biden are being amplified in part because the party wants a nominee more aligned with its activist left. The left is expanding definitions of sexism and discrimination to include subjective discomfort, not just actual harassment or unequal treatment. Media outlets are far more willing to protect Democrats than hold them to the same standards they apply to conservatives. Trump’s political advantage comes from Democrats’ overreach; he can frame them as extreme on socialism, gender politics, and the economy. Environmental activists opposing carbon capture may be motivated by broader anti-fossil-fuel or redistribution goals rather than emissions reduction alone.

Data Points: Wisconsin turnout: 27% - Turnout in the Wisconsin Supreme Court special election, described as strong for an off-year statewide race. Wisconsin Supreme Court margin: 5,900 votes - Unofficial lead for conservative Brian Hagedorn over liberal-backed Lisa Neubauer. Wisconsin Supreme Court margin percentage: 0.49% - Close enough to trigger a potential recount. Wisconsin Supreme Court majority: 5-2 - Conservative win would expand the court’s conservative majority from 4-3 to 5-2. Wisconsin 2020 polling vs Biden: 54-46 - Emerson College poll cited as showing Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin. Wisconsin 2020 polling vs Biden: 53-40 - Firehouse Strategies poll cited as showing Biden with a larger lead over Trump. Trump vs Kamala Harris in Wisconsin: 50-50 - Emerson College poll cited as effectively even. Trump vs Amy Klobuchar in Wisconsin: 50-50 - Emerson College poll cited as effectively even. Trump vs Beto O’Rourke in Wisconsin: 51-49 - Emerson College poll cited as nearly even, within margin of error. Trump vs Bernie Sanders in Wisconsin: 52-48 - Emerson College poll cited as close, considering margin of error. Trump vs Elizabeth Warren in Wisconsin: 52-48 - Emerson College poll cited as a close race. Pennsylvania Senate special election margin: About 4,000 votes - Pam Iovino led Republican D. Raja with 94% of precincts counted. Biden accusation context: Two more women - Transcript notes additional women coming forward describing Biden as physically uncomfortable or too tactile. Carbon capture funding: $68 million - New investment from Chevron, Occidental, and BHP for Carbon Engineering. Carbon capture cost: Under $100 per ton - BBC-reported cost for extracting CO2 from air. Carbon capture scale: Up to 1 million tons per year - Projected capacity of industrial-scale plants. Book rankings: No. 3 on Amazon and Barnes & Noble - Shapiro promotes The Right Side of History as a current bestseller.

Pivotal Quotes: "This is the only bellwether that we have this year." — Ben Shapiro: On the Wisconsin Supreme Court special election and its significance for 2020. "The revolution eats its own, and it is fascinating to watch." — Ben Shapiro: On Democrats turning the same broad “war on women” framework against Joe Biden. "You know, the first time I heard it, I said, that's the craziest thing." — Donald Trump: Trump mocking the Green New Deal and Democratic enthusiasm for socialism at the NRCC.

Implications: Shapiro argues Democrats risk losing swing-state voters if they keep moving left and attacking their strongest moderate. For 2020, he sees Trump benefiting from Democratic internal conflict, media bias, and voter rejection of progressive excess.