Ep. 778 - Trump Gets Tough

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on three major themes: renewed scrutiny of Trump-era obstruction allegations through James Comey’s CNN appearance, escalating U.S.-China trade tensions as tariffs rise and markets react, and the Democratic Party’s shift leftward in the 2020 race. Shapiro argues Comey is biased and that Trump’s China posture may be strategically tough but economically risky if tariffs become policy rather than leverage.

Main Topics: Comey, Mueller, and the obstruction narrative (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro criticizes James Comey’s CNN comments endorsing obstruction charges against Trump, arguing the claim ignores intent requirements, overlooks Mueller’s inaction, and reflects Comey’s personal stake in his firing. U.S.-China trade war and tariff strategy (Priority: 5/5): The show’s central policy discussion examines Trump’s tariff hikes on Chinese goods, China’s promised retaliation, and whether tariffs are being used as leverage for intellectual-property enforcement or as a genuine pro-tariff policy. Market disruption and economic consequences (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro emphasizes that tariffs raise costs for consumers and businesses, unsettle markets, and risk damaging U.S. prosperity if left in place, even if they may pressure China in negotiations. North Korea and broader foreign-policy pressure (Priority: 3/5): The episode briefly covers North Korean missile launches and the U.S. seizure of a North Korean coal ship, framing them as signs of renewed pressure and instability on the Korean Peninsula. Democrats and the Russia-probe continuation (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro argues Democrats like Jerry Nadler and Nancy Pelosi are prolonging the obstruction narrative without evidence, treating the Mueller report as politically useful despite its conclusions. The 2020 Democratic Party moving left (Priority: 4/5): Biden’s policy shifts, Bernie Sanders and AOC’s push for postal banking, and proposals like credit-card caps are used to illustrate how Democrats are adopting more radical economic positions to compete with the party’s base. Mailbag Q&A on education, taxes, healthcare, and foreign policy (Priority: 3/5): The show closes with listener questions on To Kill a Mockingbird, Holocaust/slavery education, CEO pay, flat taxes, vaccines, Saudi Arabia, Social Security, Taiwan, and voting strategy.

Key Arguments: James Comey’s obstruction claims are politically biased because he has a direct incentive to justify his firing and preserve his institutional image. Obstruction of justice requires intent; Shapiro argues Trump’s firing of Comey does not plausibly establish that intent, especially since the Mueller investigation continued for two years. Mueller could have recommended future prosecution after Trump left office if the evidence clearly supported it, but he did not. Tariffs are generally harmful because they raise consumer prices, reduce competitiveness, and invite retaliation, even if targeted tariffs can be used as leverage against Chinese trade cheating. Trump’s messaging is inconsistent: he alternates between treating tariffs as a bargaining tool and praising them as inherently beneficial. The Democratic Party is shifting left because Biden must match or outflank Sanders/AOC-style politics on immigration, banking, and credit regulation. Proposals like postal banking are presented as disguised subsidies that would create more government dependence rather than market-based access to services. To Kill a Mockingbird remains a valuable teaching text because it models moral courage and anti-racist aspiration rather than racial grievance. Vaccination mandates are justified because non-vaccination creates public-health externalities. Foreign policy must be judged by alternatives; even imperfect partners like Saudi Arabia may be preferable to regional domination by Iran.

Data Points: Tariff rate on Chinese goods: 25% - U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products from 10% to 25%. Value of tariffed Chinese imports: $200 billion - Goods including electronics, clothing, and toys were hit by the higher rate. Potential market loss cited: nearly $1.5 trillion - UK Sun report said Trump’s tariff tweet wiped this amount off global markets. Date of tariff increase: Friday, 12:01 p.m. Beijing time - The U.S. tariff increase took effect according to the transcript’s Reuters summary. Grace period for tariff application: products leaving China after 12:01 a.m. Friday U.S. time - Higher tariffs applied based on shipment timing. Former prosecutors backing obstruction case: about 800 - Comey referenced a statement by hundreds of former federal prosecutors. OpenFit free trial length: 30 days - Sponsored ad offering an extended free trial for listeners. Potential weight loss claim: up to 15 pounds in 30 days - OpenFit marketing claim during the ad read. ZipRecruiter employer success rate: 4 out of 5 - Claim that four out of five employers find a quality candidate within a day. Social Security budget share: more than 33% - Shapiro says Social Security now consumes over a third of the federal budget. Social Security projected insolvency: by 2030 - Used to criticize the program’s long-term structure. Small-business/high-income tax threshold example: around $60,000 - Mentioned in discussion of Scandinavian tax systems and progressivity. North Korean freighter cargo: 17,000 tons - The Wise Honest ship was seized after allegedly violating sanctions by shipping coal.

Pivotal Quotes: "Tariffs will make our country much stronger, not weaker. Just sit back and watch." — Donald Trump: Shapiro cites Trump’s tweet as evidence of mixed messaging and pro-tariff enthusiasm. "It made us all look bad." — James Comey: Comey on the Peter Strzok/Lisa Page episode and damage to the FBI’s reputation. "The Democrats are trying to hide it." — Jerry Nadler: Nadler argues the Mueller findings are being concealed, which Shapiro presents as evidence of overreach.

Implications: The episode frames Trump’s foreign-policy moves as potentially effective but inconsistent, warns that tariffs could damage the U.S. economy if normalized, and suggests Democrats’ leftward shift may reshape the 2020 race and public-policy debate.