Ep. 789 - Trump Unleashed

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ben Shapiro argues Trump’s 2020 chances are strong because of incumbency and a healthy economy, but warns Trump hurts himself with impulsive, immoral rhetoric—especially citing Kim Jong-un against Biden. The episode also covers EU elections as a backlash against Brussels, immigration, and overcentralization, plus media dishonesty in framing conservatives as extremists and linking Shapiro to white supremacist violence.

Main Topics: Trump’s 2020 prospects vs. self-inflicted political damage (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro discusses models showing Trump as the favorite due to incumbency and economic strength, but says Trump’s personal behavior and chaotic messaging could undermine that advantage. Trump’s Kim Jong-un/Biden comments (Priority: 5/5): He strongly criticizes Trump for invoking North Korea’s dictator to insult Biden, calling it immoral, strategically dumb, and harmful to Trump’s image of stability. Democratic attacks on Trump (Priority: 4/5): Democrats like Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, and Hillary Clinton are portrayed as largely ineffective when they attack Trump on policy or media narratives, with character attacks having more traction. EU election backlash and political fragmentation (Priority: 5/5): The European Parliament elections are framed as a revolt against the centrist establishment, driven by objections to EU overreach, immigration, and weak national sovereignty. Immigration, assimilation, and anti-Semitism in Europe (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro argues mass immigration from Muslim-majority countries has intensified cultural conflict and anti-Semitism in Europe, while media often misattribute these trends. Media distortion and attacks on conservatives (Priority: 5/5): He accuses BuzzFeed and The Washington Post of unfairly linking him to neo-Nazi violence, and criticizes broader media practices of fabrication and guilt-by-association. Culture-war and media ridicule segments (Priority: 2/5): The episode ends with lighter commentary on John Wick 3, criticism of AOC’s anti-Semitism framing, and a CBS segment about period stigma that Shapiro treats as absurd.

Key Arguments: Trump’s structural advantages in 2020 come from incumbency and the economy, not merely from personality or media combativeness. Trump’s 2016 win was driven heavily by Hillary Clinton’s unpopularity and depressed Democratic turnout, not just Trump’s own appeal. Citing Kim Jong-un to attack Biden is morally wrong and strategically counterproductive because it makes Trump look unstable rather than presidential. Democratic claims that Trump is rushing the U.S. toward war with Iran are dismissed as unsupported and politically ineffective. EU voters are rebelling against an overcentralized, unelected Brussels bureaucracy and against immigration policies that have outpaced assimilation. European anti-Semitism is growing from multiple sources, including the far right and Muslim immigrant communities, while media selectively emphasize only the far right. BuzzFeed and The Washington Post are accused of irresponsibly and misleadingly linking Shapiro to acts of white supremacist violence without evidence of direct causation. The broader media often fabricates or exaggerates narratives about conservatives, then uses those narratives to delegitimize right-leaning politics. AOC’s objection to criticism of Bernie Sanders’s wealth is presented as an inconsistent and unserious anti-Semitism standard. Some culture-war media segments are mocked as unnecessary or disconnected from real social taboos.

Data Points: Ray Fair model prediction for Obama in 2008: 53.1% popular vote - Used to show the model’s historical accuracy in presidential prediction Obama actual 2008 popular vote: 53.7% - Compared against the model prediction Ray Fair model prediction for Obama in 2012: 51.8% - Used to show the model’s historical accuracy in presidential prediction Obama actual 2012 popular vote: about 52% - Compared against the model prediction Ray Fair model prediction for Trump in 2016: 54.1% - Shapiro cites this to discuss model failure due to Trump’s unusual candidacy Trump actual 2016 popular vote: 48.8% - Shows a large model miss in 2016 Trump lead in some models for 2020: Trump wins in every one of 12 models - Referenced Moody’s Analytics and other forecasting models Recent polling gap vs Biden: nearly 8 percentage points - Shapiro says Trump would lose to Biden if the election were held immediately EU turnout: highest turnout in 20 years - European Parliament elections saw elevated participation EPP seats change: lost 39 seats - European People’s Party lost ground in EU Parliament Socialists and Democrats seats change: lost 36 seats - Center-left group also lost substantial seats ALDE seats change: gained 38 seats - Liberals backed by Macron strengthened their position Greens seats change: gained 17 seats - Environmental parties made gains across Europe Macron’s party vs Le Pen in France: 21 seats to 22 seats - French far-right narrowly outperformed Macron’s pro-EU party Salvini’s League vote share in Italy: one-third of the vote - Right-wing League became a major force in Italy Anti-Semitic incidents in Germany in 2018: 1,799 reports - German government report cited in the discussion Anti-Semitic incidents increase in Germany: almost 20% - Year-over-year rise cited in the German report Violent anti-Semitic acts in Germany: 69 acts classified as violence - Part of the German government findings FRA anti-Semitism survey respondents: 16,500 individuals across 12 member states - EU survey referenced regarding anti-Semitic attitudes Reported perpetrators of anti-Semitic harassment: 30% Muslim, 21% left-wing, 13% right-wing - Survey results cited to argue anti-Semitism is not solely far-right

Pivotal Quotes: "I smiled when he called Swampman Joe Biden a low IQ individual and worse. Perhaps that's sending me a signal?" — Donald Trump (quoted by Ben Shapiro): Shapiro condemns Trump for citing Kim Jong-un to insult Biden "The president of the United States had said that Kim Jong-un would make a better president than, here it is. Kim Jong-un is smarter and would make a better president than Sleepy Joe Biden." — Ian Bremmer (misquoted/apologized): Shapiro describes a fabricated quote circulated by a Time columnist "Trump’s biggest inherent disadvantage is his inability to contain himself personally." — Ben Shapiro: Shapiro’s central strategic critique of Trump’s re-election prospects

Implications: Shapiro’s core warning is that Trump can win on economics and incumbency only if he stops undercutting himself. He also argues Europe’s political center is fracturing under immigration and bureaucratic overreach, while media hostility toward conservatives is worsening trust and polarization.