Ep. 895 - Everybody In The Pool!

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Shapiro argues the Democratic field is weak, with Biden benefiting from Black support while Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, and a possible Deval Patrick entry expose party fractures. He then critiques Bernie Sanders’s anti-Semitism essay, says the Atlantic misreads America’s division as mostly racial rather than ideological, and closes by condemning media double standards in sports politics.

Main Topics: Democratic primary polling and early-state dynamics (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro reviews national, Iowa, and New Hampshire polling, arguing Biden’s strength with Black voters and in the South makes him the likeliest nominee if he can hold early-state momentum. Biden’s coalition and South Carolina significance (Priority: 5/5): He emphasizes that Biden’s lead among Black voters, especially in South Carolina, is decisive because the Democratic electorate there is heavily Black and Biden’s Obama connection remains his core asset. Critique of Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro portrays Warren as off-putting and radical, Sanders as inconsistent and extreme on Israel/anti-Semitism, and Buttigieg as articulate but ideologically radical and weak in key constituencies. Potential Deval Patrick candidacy (Priority: 3/5): He discusses reports that Patrick may enter the race late, arguing it reflects Democratic dissatisfaction with the field but may further fragment Biden’s support rather than solve the party’s problems. America’s political fracture and demographic change (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro analyzes an Atlantic essay on national division, arguing the real issue is not race alone but a left-wing ideological push to redefine American values, rights, and immigration. Sports media and political double standards (Priority: 4/5): He contrasts praise for left-leaning political expression in sports media with the firing of Don Cherry, arguing sports outlets tolerate progressive politics while punishing conservative or nationalist commentary.

Key Arguments: Biden’s path to the nomination runs through Black voters and early-state momentum, especially New Hampshire and South Carolina. Warren’s candidacy is weakened by unpopular policy ideas and an abrasive public persona. Sanders’s anti-Semitism essay is presented as selective and politically convenient, minimizing non-white anti-Semitism while tying anti-Semitism mainly to white supremacy. Deval Patrick’s possible entry signals that Democrats view the field as flawed, but his record could create new liabilities. The country’s polarization is driven less by simple demographic change than by a left-wing project to recast constitutional values and immigration as tools of ideological change. Concerns about losing cultural and political ground are not inherently racial; they are often reactions to perceived attacks on free speech, religious liberty, and other rights. Sports media consistently protects left-wing political activism while disciplining conservative viewpoints, revealing a strong ideological asymmetry.

Data Points: Biden lead in national Democratic polling average: about 7 points - RealClearPolitics average discussed at the start of the segment Warren lead in Iowa: about 4 points over Buttigieg - RealClearPolitics Iowa polling average New Hampshire Quinnipiac poll: Biden: 20% - New Hampshire Democratic primary polling New Hampshire Quinnipiac poll: Warren: 16% - New Hampshire Democratic primary polling New Hampshire Quinnipiac poll: Buttigieg: 15% - New Hampshire Democratic primary polling New Hampshire Quinnipiac poll: Sanders: 14% - New Hampshire Democratic primary polling Undecided in New Hampshire: 14% - Voters saying they are completely undecided Could still change minds: 61% - New Hampshire voters saying they could still change their minds before Election Day Sanders committed supporters in New Hampshire: 57% - Backers saying their mind is made up Biden committed supporters in New Hampshire: 43% - Backers saying their mind is made up Warren committed supporters in New Hampshire: 29% - Backers saying their mind is made up Buttigieg committed supporters in New Hampshire: 24% - Backers saying their mind is made up Black share of South Carolina Democratic voters: just under two-thirds - Explaining Biden’s advantage in the state South Carolina Democratic electorate described as Black: majority / nearly two-thirds - Why Biden’s Black support matters so much there Sanders claim about FBI hate-crime data: 938 hate crimes against Jews in 2017 - Numbers cited in Sanders’s anti-Semitism essay Increase in anti-Jewish hate crimes in 2017 vs. 2016: up from 684 to 938 - Bernie Sanders article citing FBI data Share of religion-based hate crimes against Jews: 58% - FBI statistic cited in Sanders’s article Increase in anti-Semitic hate crimes in New York City in 2019: more than 63% - Statistic cited during critique of Sanders Biden’s position in independent/undeclared likely voters in New Hampshire: 16% - Quinnipiac subgroup polling Biden’s position among registered Democrats likely to vote: 25% - Quinnipiac subgroup polling Warren’s position among registered Democrats likely to vote: 24% - Quinnipiac subgroup polling Potential Deval Patrick income at AmeriQuest: about $360,000 per year - Huffington Post critique of Patrick’s business role New Hampshire survey sample attitude shift: 57% of Sanders backers definite; 43% Biden; 29% Warren; 24% Buttigieg - Comparing enthusiasm among supporters

Pivotal Quotes: "If Joe Biden wins New Hampshire, he wins the nomination." — Ben Shapiro: Argument that an early Biden victory would lock in his path through later states "The struggle against anti-Semitism is also the struggle for Palestinian freedom." — Bernie Sanders: Quoted from Sanders’s essay and criticized as politically misleading "The biggest driver might be demographic change." — Yoni Applebaum (as summarized by Shapiro): Core thesis of the Atlantic piece on America’s political fracture

Implications: Shapiro frames 2020 as a test of whether Democrats can unify behind a viable nominee, while warning that cultural polarization will intensify if ideology, immigration, and rights remain central conflict points. He also argues media institutions will keep rewarding left-leaning activism and punishing dissent.