Ep. 906 - The End Of The Beginning

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that Elizabeth Warren is collapsing in the Democratic polls while Pete Buttigieg gains ground, and that the media is turning on Buttigieg with racially charged criticism. It also condemns media and tech platform hypocrisy over “science” and facts, citing dog-gender coverage, a Twitter suspension over transgender crime statistics, and a NYT piece on animal sexuality. The show closes by emphasizing Democratic drift left, Trump’s durability, and a broader anti-science cultural trend.

Main Topics: Elizabeth Warren’s poll collapse (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro says Warren’s support has cratered in Iowa, New Hampshire, and nationally as voters react negatively to her detailed policy agenda and perceived extremism. Pete Buttigieg’s rise and media backlash (Priority: 5/5): Buttigieg is portrayed as benefiting from a centrist repositioning while simultaneously becoming the target of attacks over race and his super PAC history. Democratic primary realignment toward the center (Priority: 4/5): The transcript argues the party is recognizing that Sanders/Warren-style progressivism is unelectable, creating room for Biden, Buttigieg, and even Bloomberg. Media and social media hypocrisy on facts (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro criticizes journalists for obsessing over a dog’s sex, Twitter for suspending Andy Ngo over factual claims, and broader political correctness overriding empirical discussion. Scientific and cultural anti-reality trends (Priority: 4/5): The transcript attacks reporting on same-sex behavior in animals and rising life expectancy concerns as examples of ideology distorting science and public health. Trump’s swing-state strength (Priority: 4/5): Citing polling and voter interviews, Shapiro argues that many 2016 Trump voters who crossed over in 2018 are returning to Trump because Democrats are too radical.

Key Arguments: Warren’s support fell sharply once her plans were public and voters saw them as unrealistic or economically incoherent. Buttigieg’s recent rise comes from moving back toward the center, not from embracing the party’s left flank. The media’s attacks on Buttigieg are driven less by policy than by discomfort that a white candidate is making arguments about black educational outcomes. Democrats are increasingly aware that Medicare for All and democratic socialism are electoral liabilities in swing states. Bloomberg’s entry is framed as a bet that early-state chaos will leave room for a late-arriving moderate option. Journalists and platforms increasingly privilege ideological conformity over factual accuracy, as shown by the dog-gender controversy and Andy Ngo’s suspension. The New York Times and other outlets are presented as politicizing science by treating basic biological questions or obesity data as culturally offensive. America’s life expectancy decline is attributed mainly to obesity, drugs, suicide, and lifestyle choices—not a lack of healthcare spending. Trump remains competitive because many swing voters view him as more concrete and effective than Democrats’ rhetoric.

Data Points: Warren national polling average: 17% - RealClearPolitics average cited as her standing after losing momentum Buttigieg national polling average: 11% - RealClearPolitics average showing his rise into double digits Biden national polling average: 28% - RealClearPolitics average, still leading the field Sanders national polling average: 18% - RealClearPolitics average, ahead of Warren Warren in Quinnipiac poll: 28% to 14% - Her support dropped dramatically in Quinnipiac’s latest survey Buttigieg in Quinnipiac poll: 10% to 16% - His support rose over the same period Biden in Quinnipiac poll: 24% - Reported as the new leader among Democratic voters and leaners New Hampshire poll: Sanders 26%, Buttigieg 22%, Warren 14%, Biden 14% - Poll cited to illustrate Warren’s weak standing Warren Iowa standing: third place - Described as behind Buttigieg and Sanders in Iowa U.S. federal spending: $4 trillion a year - Used to argue the government is already spending heavily compared with Warren’s claims Annual deficit: $1 trillion - Cited in critique of Warren’s claim that America now spends too little U.S. obesity rate (adults): 71.6% overweight; 39.8% obese - Washington Post/JAMA discussion of declining life expectancy U.S. obesity rate (children ages 2–19): Nearly 19% obese - Used as a major driver of future mortality risk RealClearPolitics swing-state crossover group: 2% of registered voters - New York Times/Siena polling on voters who backed Democrats in 2018 and may return to Trump Trump-2016 to Democrat-2018 voters now backing Trump: Nearly two-thirds - Battleground-state poll finding that this crossover group is shifting back to Trump Buttigieg PAC fundraising: About $400,000 - HuffPost report on his super PAC PAC donations to Democratic candidates: $37,000 - Reported as a small share of total PAC funds PAC payment to Liz Smith: Nearly $70,000 - Described as spending on Buttigieg’s spokesperson PAC payment to Michael Schmuel: $30,000 - Reported payment to the PAC treasurer, later Buttigieg campaign manager PAC payment to financial director: $34,000 - Reported expenditure from the super PAC PAC spending on accountants/compliance/legal fees: About $77,000 - Compared with similar spending by Biden and Harris groups Biden’s comparable compliance/legal spending: $67,000 - Used to argue Buttigieg’s PAC spending was not unusual in this category Kamala Harris’s comparable compliance/legal spending: $90,000 - Provided for comparison with Buttigieg’s PAC

Pivotal Quotes: "Warren and Biden tied at 14%, which is a disaster area for Elizabeth Warren." — Ben Shapiro: On New Hampshire polling and Warren’s collapse "The more people see of her, the less they like her." — Ben Shapiro: Summarizing Warren’s deteriorating public standing "Why? Because you're not going to be the presidential nominee." — Ben Shapiro: Response to Warren suggesting she would pick a woman as VP

Implications: The transcript frames 2020 as a test of whether Democrats move toward moderation or keep rewarding ideological purity. It predicts continued attacks on centrist candidates, more media/science credibility loss, and strong political incentives for Trump if Democrats stay leftward.