Ep. 955 - The Bloomberg Files

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on the 2020 Democratic race, arguing Bernie Sanders is consolidating support while Joe Biden falters and Michael Bloomberg rises as a potential moderating alternative. It highlights Democratic anxiety over Sanders’ radicalism, Bloomberg’s self-funded surge and incoming debate attacks, and the party’s internal panic over a nominee who may be too left-wing for a general election.

Main Topics: Bernie Sanders’ polling strength and campaign durability (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro emphasizes Sanders leading in Nevada and nationally, including above 30% in national polling, as evidence that he is becoming the dominant force in the Democratic primary. Joe Biden’s decline and South Carolina pressure (Priority: 5/5): Biden is portrayed as sliding badly after Iowa and New Hampshire, with Nevada seen as a make-or-break test and South Carolina framed as essential for survival. Michael Bloomberg’s rise and debate debut (Priority: 5/5): Bloomberg’s massive ad spending, polling surge, and entry into the Democratic debate are presented as making him a serious establishment alternative to Sanders and Biden. Democratic infighting and fears of a Bernie nomination (Priority: 4/5): The transcript stresses that party elites and columnists are panicking over Sanders’ viability, his supporters’ online behavior, and the risk he would alienate moderates in a general election. Opposition research against Bloomberg (Priority: 4/5): The show reviews a series of attacks on Bloomberg—racial comments, entitlement cuts, health-care rationing, and comments about farmers/industrial workers—while arguing many are out of context or unlikely to move voters. Trump’s general-election positioning (Priority: 4/5): The host argues Trump is still in strong shape against any Democratic nominee, but prefers Bloomberg over Sanders because Sanders would be a more radical and dangerous outcome for the country. Cultural and political side notes (Priority: 2/5): The episode closes with lighter segments on Air Force One as a patriotic 1990s film and a Virginia defeat of an assault-weapons ban, used to illustrate broader cultural and policy themes.

Key Arguments: Sanders is no longer a fringe protest candidate; his polling above 30% suggests real durability and a credible path to delegates. Biden cannot afford another weak performance; failing to win or strongly place in Nevada and South Carolina could end his campaign. Bloomberg’s rise is powered by unprecedented spending and could allow him to consolidate moderates if Biden collapses. The Democratic Party fears Sanders because his base is highly motivated, ideologically extreme, and likely to reject a compromise nominee. Many Bloomberg attacks are context-stripped; some sound damaging in isolation but are defensible in the broader policy or historical context. A Bloomberg nomination is preferable to Sanders because it would keep the Democratic Party closer to conventional liberalism rather than full left-populism. Trump remains the benchmark candidate; Shapiro argues he would likely be favored over Sanders and still competitive against Bloomberg.

Data Points: Sanders support in Nevada (Data for Progress poll): 19-point lead - Democratic Nevada polling cited as showing Sanders well ahead of the field. Biden support in Nevada (Data for Progress poll): 14% - Placed behind Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg in the Nevada poll. Warren support in Nevada (Data for Progress poll): 16% - Nevada Democratic polling. Buttigieg support in Nevada (Data for Progress poll): 15% - Nevada Democratic polling. Biden support among Nevada Hispanic Democratic voters: 34% - Telemundo poll of Hispanic Democratic voters in Nevada. Sanders support among Nevada Hispanic Democratic voters: 31% - Telemundo poll of Hispanic Democratic voters in Nevada. Sanders support nationally (NPR/Marist poll): 31% - National Democratic primary polling. Bloomberg support nationally (NPR/Marist poll): 19% - National Democratic primary polling; Bloomberg in second place. Biden support nationally (NPR/Marist poll): 15% - National Democratic primary polling. Warren support nationally (NPR/Marist poll): 12% - National Democratic primary polling. Klobuchar support nationally (NPR/Marist poll): 9% - National Democratic primary polling. Buttigieg support nationally (NPR/Marist poll): 8% - National Democratic primary polling. Bernie rally attendance in Tacoma: 17,000 - Used to illustrate Sanders’ large crowd sizes. Bloomberg net worth: $63 billion - Referenced as evidence of his ability to self-fund and compete in ad spending. Sanders general-election odds vs. Trump: 40% chance of winning / Trump 60% - Shapiro’s rough estimate if Sanders were the Democratic nominee. Bloomberg general-election odds vs. Trump: Approximately 55-45 Trump - Shapiro’s rough estimate if Bloomberg were the Democratic nominee.

Pivotal Quotes: "This is now a three-person race. This is Bloomberg, Biden, and Sanders." — Ben Shapiro: Assessment of the Democratic primary after polling and Buttigieg/Klobuchar fade. "You show up with prostate cancer and you're 95 years old. We should say, go and enjoy. Have a nice day." — Michael Bloomberg: Old Bloomberg clip cited in the opposition-research segment about health-care rationing. "Michael Bloomberg represents the status quo and it's important to talk about it." — Bill de Blasio: De Blasio attacking Bloomberg while backing Bernie Sanders.

Implications: Sanders’ strength signals a potentially decisive leftward shift in the Democratic electorate, while Biden’s weakness opens a lane for Bloomberg to become the establishment fallback. The party’s nomination battle could shape both delegate strategy and general-election viability.