New Release at Big Technology, AI Bubble Looms, Apple's Next Event — With Brian McCullough

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode is a crossover discussion about Big Technology’s new premium subscription, followed by a year-end tech review. Alex and Brian argue big tech has recovered strongly in 2023 via layoffs, efficiency, AI investment, and renewed growth. They also debate self-driving cars, drone delivery, AI’s long-term promise, the Meta/OpenAI rivalry, crypto’s waning momentum, and Apple’s slowing growth and China exposure.

Main Topics: Big Technology Premium Launch (Priority: 5/5): Alex introduces a new paid tier with a monthly show, expert panel, and a new Amazon column. Brian endorses the panel and suggests story ideas from tech history. Big Tech Recovery in 2023 (Priority: 5/5): The hosts assess how Meta, Amazon, and Apple moved from 2022 pessimism to a more stable 2023, driven by layoffs, efficiency measures, AI investment, and stock recovery. AI as the Dominant Tech Narrative (Priority: 5/5): Brian argues AI is still in an early, overhyped short term but massively underestimated over the long term, because it could turn computing into a more natural, conversational interface. Meta vs. OpenAI and the Open Source Debate (Priority: 5/5): They discuss whether Meta can challenge OpenAI by leveraging open source models, massive user data, and its AI talent base, while cautioning that open-source advocacy may be shaped by investor incentives. Self-Driving Cars and Drone Delivery (Priority: 4/5): Alex and Brian frame 2023 as the year autonomous driving and drone delivery crossed into reality, especially via Waymo’s expansion, suggesting these may become major tech stories beyond AI. Crypto’s Loss of Momentum (Priority: 4/5): They agree crypto’s cultural and narrative energy has faded sharply from the pandemic-era boom, even if blockchain still has niche applications and Bitcoin occasionally rallies. Apple’s Slowing Growth and Event Expectations (Priority: 4/5): Apple’s weaker year is attributed to post-pandemic upgrade fatigue, China-related headwinds, and slowing revenue, with discussion of an upcoming 'Scary Fast' Mac event likely centered on the M3 chip.

Key Arguments: Big Tech has largely recovered from late-2022 turmoil, with Meta stock up sharply and companies responding to market pressure through efficiency and product shifts. Meta’s 'year of efficiency' did not mean abandoning the metaverse; instead it combined cost cuts with continued spending and added AI products. Apple’s growth slowdown reflects both macro effects and product-cycle fatigue, especially after pandemic-era upgrades, plus meaningful China risk. Amazon improved its AI position through Anthropic investment and by turning AWS into a broader AI model platform, though AWS growth is slowing. AI is in a hype/expectation gap now, but could transform everyday computing by making computers respond to natural language commands. OpenAI’s advantage is not just model quality but incumbent status; Meta’s open-source strategy is a bid to create an ecosystem that can challenge it. Waymo and autonomous vehicles are now operationally meaningful at scale, making self-driving one of the year’s most underrated tech stories. Crypto’s energy has cooled because the easy-money, zero-rate environment is gone, and many prior use cases were speculative or unsustainable. Drone delivery is beginning to become real in the U.S., paralleling the self-driving shift from promise to product. The next big question in AI is who owns the model layer and the infrastructure layer, not just who builds chatbot wrappers.

Data Points: Big Technology free period: 3 years - Alex says the free edition of Big Technology has been available for three years and will remain available. Big Technology Premium annual launch offer: $90 per year - Alex promotes the launch special for the new premium tier. Discount rate: 30% off annual price - Launch special discount mentioned for premium subscribers. Monthly premium podcast frequency: Once a month - 'Big Tech War Stories' will publish monthly for premium subscribers. Panel size: About 20 experts - Alex says the premium edition includes roughly 20 tech experts on the panel. Meta stock performance: Up 150% over the year - Used to illustrate how strongly Meta recovered from 2022 pessimism. Apple-related ad tracking loss: About $10 billion - Brian cites the revenue hit from Apple’s anti-tracking changes. Amazon Anthropic investment: $1.25 billion now, potentially up to $4 billion - Brian describes Amazon’s strategic AI investment. AWS growth: Slowing - Brian notes AWS growth has decelerated even as AI competition increases. Amazon stock performance: Up about 40% on the year - Brian uses this to show Amazon’s recovery. Waymo Phoenix footprint: From 50 to more than 200 square miles - Brian cites Waymo’s operational expansion since 2021. Huawei market position in China: Number one phone in China - Brian says Huawei gained ground as Chinese nationalism and government guidance hurt Apple. Apple revenue trend: Four straight quarters of revenue growth decline - Brian describes Apple’s recent performance. ChatGPT age: Not even a year old yet - Brian uses this to argue AI remains very early-stage. Bitcoin price rally: $35,000 per coin - Brian notes a temporary surge driven by ETF expectations.

Pivotal Quotes: "They need to go back to the experimental route cycle." — Garv Nemada: Clip from the first Big Tech War Stories episode about Google’s internal culture and product development. "AI saved the market in 2023." — Brian McCullough: Brian argues that AI was the key narrative supporting tech stocks and sentiment this year. "I believe that we're underestimating the ability of the true promise of computing to be manifest within our lives... within less than five years." — Brian McCullough: Brian explains why he thinks AI will transform everyday computing far beyond current short-term expectations.

Implications: Listeners should expect tech to keep bifurcating: short-term hype cycles will fade, but AI, autonomy, and infrastructure bets may reshape work, media, and mobility. The biggest winners will likely control models, data, and deployment ecosystems.