Episode Summary
Executive Summary: The episode covers four major market stories: the EU’s role in killing Adobe’s Figma deal, Boeing’s latest 737 MAX crisis, the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and the controversy at cap-table platform Carta over its secondary business. The hosts also discuss Match Group’s activist pressure and Scott Galloway’s move out of tech into distressed credit, ending with practical investing advice focused on diversification, time horizon, and low-cost index funds.
Main Topics: Adobe–Figma acquisition blocked by regulators: Scott argues the EU correctly stopped Adobe’s $20B purchase of Figma, calling it a monopoly-premium deal that would have reduced competition and raised prices in design software. Boeing’s 737 MAX door blowout and reputational risk: The hosts debate whether the Alaska Airlines incident will materially hurt Boeing. They conclude the near-duopoly with Airbus and airline dependence on 737 infrastructure likely limit long-term damage, despite the seriousness of Boeing’s repeated safety crises. Bitcoin ETF approval and market consequences: The SEC’s approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs is framed as legitimizing Bitcoin while lowering access and fees for mainstream investors. The biggest long-term loser, they argue, is Coinbase as a premium crypto on-ramp gets commoditized. New York Times/OpenAI-Microsoft copyright lawsuit: Scott says publishers missed an earlier chance to organize and should now form a coalition to negotiate collectively with AI firms, rather than each strike separate deals and weaken their leverage. Carta’s secondary-market scandal: Carta’s use of confidential cap-table data to pitch secondary transactions is criticized as a trust breach, but the hosts view the broader private-secondary market as growing and structurally important due to limited IPO liquidity. Match Group and activist investor Elliott: Elliott’s $1B stake is seen as a credible catalyst for Match Group, which controls a majority of the U.S. dating-app market and may have pricing power that activist pressure could unlock. 2024 portfolio strategy: de-risking from tech into credit: Scott says he is selling some Amazon, Apple, and Airbnb to reduce concentration, move toward distressed credit, and emphasize diversification, disciplined saving, and long-term index investing.
Key Arguments: EU regulators can meaningfully stop cross-border tech deals, and their intervention preserved competition in creative software. Adobe paid a monopoly premium for Figma because owning both incumbent creative tools and the innovative upstart would have increased market power. Boeing’s latest crisis is severe, but airlines have limited alternatives and costly fleet dependency makes an immediate switch unlikely. The SEC-approved Bitcoin ETFs legitimize Bitcoin and make access easier, but also compress Coinbase’s margins and moat. Publishers should negotiate with AI companies as a consortium to maximize bargaining power instead of striking individually. Carta’s misconduct is a trust violation, yet the private secondary market itself is expanding because IPO scarcity creates demand for liquidity. Match Group likely has substantial pricing power because it controls most major dating apps and has become an underappreciated monopoly. For ordinary investors, the best strategy is diversification, consistent saving, and time in the market rather than stock picking. Scott believes tech valuations look stretched compared with past bubble periods, so reducing concentration is prudent. Distressed credit offers better risk-adjusted opportunity in 2024 than heavily owned mega-cap tech, especially for investors with capital and patience.
Data Points: SP 500 annual return: 24% gain in 2023 - Market vitals at the start of the episode Dollar performance: down about 2% in 2023 - Market vitals amid rate-cut expectations Bitcoin performance: up more than 150% in 2023 - Driven by hopes for a Bitcoin ETF 10-year Treasury yield: ended 2023 back where it started, after peaking above 5% - Market vitals Adobe-Figma deal value: $20 billion - Acquisition abandoned after regulatory roadblocks Adobe market cap share implied by deal: 12% of Adobe’s market cap - Scott’s explanation of the deal size Figma valuation at deal time: $10 billion - Scott notes the company’s prior valuation Figma revenue at deal time: $450 million annually - Used to frame the acquisition multiple Figma deal multiple: 5x sales - Scott characterizes Adobe’s willingness to pay Boeing stock move: down more than 10% to start the year - After the Alaska Airlines incident and grounded jets Grounded Boeing jets: more than 170 - Following the 737 MAX door blowout CPI inflation: 3.4% year-over-year in December - Higher than expected, with housing a major contributor Housing share of CPI increase: more than half - December CPI composition Bitcoin ETF applications: 11 applications approved - SEC approved all spot Bitcoin ETF filings SEC hacked announcement: Bitcoin hit a 19-month high before falling 6% - False X post briefly signaled approval before correction Match Group stake by Elliott: about $1 billion - Activist investor position disclosed Match Group stock reaction: up as much as 12% - After Elliott’s stake became public Match Group U.S. dating-app share: around 60% - Includes Tinder, Hinge, OKCupid, Match.com Match Group valuation: about $11 billion market cap - Scott and Ed discuss valuation relative to market share Tinder subscription price: about $5/month - Compared with Bumble pricing in the discussion Bumble subscription price: about $10/month - Used to illustrate pricing power Carta company valuation: $7.5 billion - Referenced while discussing the company’s scale Carta annual revenue: around $350 million - Used to estimate valuation multiple Carta revenue multiple: 20x sales - Raised as a high but not extreme valuation Secondary transaction fee: 2% platform fee vs. about 7% from some intermediaries - Used to explain economics and why the market needs better infrastructure Scott’s portfolio concentration: owns 2 of the Magnificent 7 - He says he holds Amazon and Apple Scott’s Apple/Amazon appreciation: roughly 30x and 40x - He describes the gains from buying after 2008 Netflix missed upside: about 60x - He sold early after a tax-loss event and regretted it Saving target advice: $500 to $2,000 per month - Scott’s recommended habit for young investors Expected long-run market return: 6% to 10% a year - Used to argue for passive investing and time in the market
Pivotal Quotes: "I think this is the right thing to do." — Scott Galloway: On the EU blocking Adobe’s acquisition of Figma "Coinbase is the AOL of crypto." — Scott Galloway: On the impact of Bitcoin ETF approval on crypto access and exchange competition "You want to be forceful, yet dignified." — Scott Galloway: On how activists like Elliott should communicate with target companies
Implications: The episode suggests regulators, activists, and market structure matter more than headline narratives. Expect tighter competition in software, pressure on Coinbase, more private-market liquidity solutions, and renewed calls for disciplined, diversified investing over concentrated tech bets.