Sell America Trade 2.0 | Andy Constan on Foreign Outperformance, Huge Financing Need, and Bull Case For Short-Term Rates

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Andy Constant argues the market is entering a new phase where huge private-sector investment needs—AI capex, onshoring, and defense-related spending—must be financed by capital markets rather than government balance-sheet expansion. That shift is likely to pressure asset prices, raise risk premia, and favor non-U.S. assets, gold, and yield-curve steepeners over U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar.

Main Topics: Shift from public-sector to private-sector financing (Priority: 5/5): Constant says the last five years were dominated by deficit spending and QE, but the next phase depends on the private economy absorbing large issuance for AI, factories, and onshoring. AI capex boom and financing constraints (Priority: 5/5): He views AI infrastructure spending as massive and real, but questions whether the returns will materialize fast enough to justify valuations and financing costs. Asset prices, risk premia, and market repricing (Priority: 5/5): The conversation centers on how bond/equity issuance affects risk premia: higher financing supply can push prices down before spending recycles into income. Relative value of U.S. vs. rest-of-world assets (Priority: 5/5): Constant says U.S. assets are expensive versus developed ex-U.S. markets, and he is rotating his beta portfolio out of U.S. assets into international exposure. Gold as a monetary and portfolio-rebalancing trade (Priority: 4/5): He sees gold’s rise as driven more by portfolio rebalancing and fiat debasement concerns than by central-bank buying alone. Rates, Fed cuts, and yield-curve steepening (Priority: 4/5): Despite no recession call, he expects more Fed easing than priced and likes steepeners because front-end rates look easier than the long end. Corporate credit and refinancing risk (Priority: 3/5): He is not aggressively bearish on investment-grade credit, arguing existing credits are strong and that equities would likely break first if stress emerges.

Key Arguments: The economy is moving from a period of government/QE-driven liquidity to one where private-sector borrowing must fund major investments, which is inherently less asset-friendly while financing is being raised. AI capex is likely real and large, but the key question is whether the business model and GDP impact are strong enough to generate returns fast enough to support the debt and equity issued for it. If issuance can be absorbed without higher rates, the economy can run hot; if not, higher financing costs will reduce investment and pressure risk assets. Last year’s investment boom was largely funded by free cash flow, but that channel is nearing saturation, forcing firms to choose between lower buybacks, more borrowing, or less capex. U.S. asset valuations and risk premia look poor relative to developed ex-U.S. markets, especially now that foreign bond yields are high enough to provide diversification. Gold’s rally is better explained by broad portfolio rebalancing and fiat concern than by a simple central-bank buyer story; central banks may be paused, not the main marginal buyer. He expects modest slowdown and more Fed easing than markets price, even without recession, because growth/inflation likely undershoot expectations. Corporate credit is not the best short here; equities are more likely to weaken first because credit is still well financed and refinancing is generally planned well in advance.

Data Points: U.S. deficit-to-GDP: ~6% - Constant cites the U.S. deficit as still very large but no longer expanding as fast as before. AI infrastructure spending: ~$1 trillion/year - He repeatedly describes AI and AI infrastructure investment as roughly a trillion dollars annually. Trump-related U.S. investment promises: ~$2 trillion - He says tariffs have created promises for $2 trillion of investment in the U.S. to avoid tariffs or onshore production. Last year’s investment funding mix: Mostly free cash flow - He argues hyperscaler AI capex last year was largely financed from free cash flow rather than new debt/equity issuance. Fed cuts priced: 25 bps over next four meetings; roughly 40 bps total to 3.25% terminal in some pricing - He says markets are pricing only a modest cutting cycle and he expects more easing than that. U.S. inflation: ~2.7% - He references current inflation as around this level while arguing it will likely ease further. Consumption-led real growth: ~3% real rate - He says consumer spending alone is growing near 3% real, with investment and government driving the rest of GDP. Japan 40-year bond yield: from ~15 bps (2019) to over 4% - He uses Japan’s long-end repricing to illustrate global bond market adjustment. Japanese 40-year bond price example: 0.5% bond issued at par in 2019 now trading at 40 - He gives this as an example of the long-end selloff in Japan. Gold return: ~65% over the past year - He notes gold’s strong performance as evidence of portfolio rebalancing and fiat skepticism. Gold price milestone: ~75% of the way to $5,000 - Used rhetorically to emphasize how far gold has moved. Japan’s historical long-bond yield: 15 bps in 2019 - He contrasts ultra-low past yields with today’s much higher rates. Current VIX-like volatility: ~18-20 - He says volatility is elevated enough that a 1% daily move feels like a crash. U.S. bond market relative yield: Front-end twos roughly at Fed funds - He argues front-end Treasuries are attractive because they’re near policy rate levels. Portfolio allocation shift: 100% U.S. assets -> 50/50 -> 0% U.S. assets - He describes a year-long rotation out of U.S. stocks and bonds into non-U.S. assets.

Pivotal Quotes: "If you want run-it-hot, you need accommodative issuance, absorbed issuance. If you can't get that, you can't run it hot." — Andy Constant: Summarizing his core thesis on why financing conditions determine whether the economy can sustain strong growth. "The borrowing is anti-asset. That makes sense." — Andy Constant: He explains that large-scale financing weighs on asset prices while the borrowing is being raised, before the spending boosts incomes later. "I think the risk premium available in U.S. stocks and bonds relative to any other 60-40 construct is just awful." — Andy Constant: His rationale for rotating beta exposure out of U.S. assets and into rest-of-world portfolios.

Implications: Investors should watch issuance, financing absorption, and international yield/valuation gaps—not just growth headlines. Constant’s view favors non-U.S. equities/bonds, gold, and curve steepeners, while warning that heavy AI/onshoring financing could pressure U.S. asset returns before any growth payoff appears.