The Covid Protests in China and Why They Happened Now

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode examines unprecedented anti-lockdown protests across major Chinese cities in late 2022 and their deeper causes: three years of COVID-0 restrictions, local fiscal stress, weak growth, real-estate dependence, and youth pessimism. Guest Victor Xi argues the demonstrations are extraordinary, tactically tolerated at first, but likely to face arrests as the state balances public anger, elite control, and its unwillingness to fully abandon zero-COVID.

Main Topics: Nationwide protests against COVID-0 (Priority: 5/5): Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, and Victor Xi discuss the scale and significance of street protests in Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities, emphasizing that open dissent of this kind is rare and historically comparable to 1989. Why the protests erupted in late 2022 (Priority: 5/5): The conversation centers on the Urumqi fire, recent policy tweaks announced on November 11, and harsh local enforcement tactics that intensified public anger after years of restrictions. State response, censorship, and tactical restraint (Priority: 4/5): Victor Xi argues the government initially allowed some protest activity and online sharing for tactical reasons, but is now tightening police control and will likely arrest organizers. Local government fiscal stress and enforcement capacity (Priority: 5/5): A major theme is how declining land-sale revenue, weak local budgets, and understaffed community enforcement networks undermine the ability to sustain lockdowns and suppress unrest. Real estate collapse and China’s growth model (Priority: 4/5): The discussion explains how local governments rely on land sales and property development to finance infrastructure, and how the property downturn has amplified economic strain across many cities. Vaccination, policy exit, and the limits of central planning (Priority: 4/5): The guests question why China failed to build a clear exit path from zero-COVID, especially by boosting elderly vaccination rates or approving mRNA vaccines, despite having years to prepare. Youth unemployment and long-term social consequences (Priority: 4/5): Victor Xi links the protests to dim job prospects for young graduates, especially outside STEM fields, suggesting that economic scarring may shape an entire generation’s outlook.

Key Arguments: The protests are extraordinary because they are in-person, multi-city demonstrations in major political centers, something not seen at this scale since 1989. Unlike many prior Chinese protests that were local and grievance-specific, these demonstrations feature broad political slogans calling for democracy, freedom, constitutional reform, and even the downfall of leadership. Chinese law nominally protects speech and assembly, but subversion of the Communist Party is illegal, making anti-leadership protest participants legally vulnerable. The government’s initial tolerance may have been tactical: allowing some protest to unfold briefly can reduce the risk of an immediate backlash from harsher suppression. Local authorities are under severe strain because they are expected to enforce complex quarantine rules with limited manpower and shrinking budgets. Land sales are central to local public finance; as property sales collapse, cities lose both revenue and collateral for borrowing, weakening infrastructure spending and state capacity. The central government has not clearly signaled that local officials will no longer be blamed for COVID spread, so bureaucrats continue using draconian tactics to avoid punishment. China’s vaccination strategy appears incomplete, especially for elderly boosters, and the refusal to broadly adopt mRNA vaccines is presented as a major missed opportunity. Youth job prospects are worsening, especially for humanities and social-science graduates, adding an economic layer to the political unrest. Even if national policy changes slowly, protesters may force de facto relaxation on the ground by removing barricades and pushing institutions to ease controls.

Data Points: Protest scale: Multiple major cities - Victor Xi says the unrest is in-person and on-street across major Chinese cities, unprecedented since 1989. Historical comparison: Since 1989 - Used to emphasize how rare major urban protest movements are in China. COVID timeline: Almost 3 years - Hosts describe the duration of China’s zero-COVID regime by late November 2022. Party Congress: 20th Party Congress - Referenced as a political turning point that many expected might precede policy easing. Fire deaths: 10 people - Reported deaths in the Urumqi fire that helped spark public outrage. Policy change date: November 11 - Date of the 20-measure relaxation of COVID policy that still left local authorities under pressure. Quarantine shift: 7 days to 5 days - Policy change reduced off-site quarantine time but increased in-home quarantine burden. Foreigners in China: Cut by 90% - Victor Xi uses this to argue that claims of foreign-instigated protests are implausible. Local revenue decline: Close to 10% - Victor Xi says local government revenue is down sharply, squeezing budgets and salaries. Land sales decline: Down 26%–27% year to date - Illustrates the severity of the property and fiscal downturn affecting local governments. Youth unemployment: Over 20% - Presented as a key driver of young people’s pessimism and participation in protests. Police capacity: Tens of thousands - Hosts note the huge police presence available in Beijing to respond to unrest. Community worker pay: A few hundred dollars a month - Describes modest compensation for residential/community committee workers enforcing COVID rules. Informal enforcer pay: 300 renminbi a day - Victor Xi cites footage of temporary workers hired to help suppress protests in Wuhan. Foreign vaccine access: Only foreigners can get mRNA vaccines - Victor Xi says that after Schultz’s visit, foreigners in China can access mRNA vaccines, not the general population.

Pivotal Quotes: "this is very, very extraordinary in that these are in-person, on-the-street protests across multiple major cities of China. And this is really something that we have not seen since 1989." — Victor Xi: Explaining why the protest wave is historically unusual "My read of it is very tactical so far." — Victor Xi: On why authorities initially appeared to tolerate some protest and online sharing "if you don't protest, you're not going to get a result. If you organize a small protest, you'll get a small result. If you organize a big protest, then you'll get major results." — Victor Xi: On how protests have historically sometimes forced concessions in China

Implications: The unrest exposes the fragility of zero-COVID, local government finance, and social stability. Even if Beijing avoids a rapid national policy reversal, pressure may force gradual reopening, tighter censorship, and arrests of organizers.