Violent Crime Is Spiking. Do Liberals Have an Answer?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ezra Klein and James Forman Jr. examine how rising violent crime shapes politics, public safety, and inequality, using the 1970s-90s crime wave and Washington, D.C. as historical anchors. They argue that fear drives punitive policy and state violence, but that a better agenda combines prevention, targeted policing, social services, and major investment in community-based violence reduction.

Main Topics: Crime waves reshape politics and public life: Klein opens by arguing that rising homicides devastate communities directly and indirectly, emptying public space, worsening inequality, and pushing politics toward fear and punishment. The Black community’s experience of the 1970s-90s crime wave: Forman describes growing up amid mugging, crack-era violence, and widespread fear in Black America, emphasizing how crime was discussed as a crisis comparable to slavery or Jim Crow. Black support for tough-on-crime policies was real but contested: The conversation centers on how Black leaders and voters, under pressure from violence, sometimes backed mandatory minimums and punitive measures, even as civil rights activists warned about overincarceration. Policing as both protection and harm: Forman recounts aggressive D.C. 'jump out' policing of students, showing how state violence, humiliation, and suspicion can deepen trauma and even contribute to later criminal behavior. Explaining the crime drop and limits of mass incarceration: The speakers note that crime fell sharply from the 1990s to the mid-2010s, but there is no consensus on why; incarceration may have played a role, but not necessarily the decisive one. A new public safety agenda beyond police-only responses: Forman argues for a large-scale mix of violence interrupters, crisis response teams, mental health and addiction services, better schools, and well-funded homicide investigation capacity. The political challenge of balancing safety and reform: Both worry that anti-police rhetoric and rising crime can alienate voters and stall reform, making it crucial to offer a credible, resourced alternative rather than 'police or nothing.'

Key Arguments: Rising violent crime is not just a public safety issue; it also destroys community life, deepens inequality, and creates a politics of fear that can produce harsher state violence. In the 1970s-90s, Black communities were not monolithic on crime: some leaders and voters supported punitive measures out of fear, urgency, and a mistaken belief they would reduce racial disparity. Aggressive policing can be criminogenic: humiliation, repeated stops, and lack of dignity can damage young people's trust in the law and increase later offending. The crime decline since the 1990s cannot be credited solely to mass incarceration; multiple explanations exist, including demographics, lead reduction, changing drug markets, and some role for enforcement. Public opinion often forces politicians into short-term punitive choices when crime is high, narrowing the policy space for more humane approaches. A realistic liberal safety agenda must be immediate and funded: violence interruption, crisis teams, hospital-based intervention, school counselors, and robust investigation of serious violent crime. Opposition to policing in the abstract is politically risky; the better strategy is to build and staff alternative systems so people have real options besides police or no response at all.

Data Points: National homicide increase in 2020 vs. 2019: 25% to almost 40% - Klein cites early pandemic-era crime data to show the scale of the recent violent crime rise. One-year increase in homicides: Largest since 1960 - Klein frames the 2020 murder spike as historically exceptional. Poll of low-income-area residents afraid to walk in their neighborhoods: Two thirds - Forman references an Urban League poll describing fear in heavily affected communities. D.C. residents who never went out alone at night: 20% of men; 45% of women - Used to illustrate the extent of fear and confinement under persistent violence. Students reporting victimization: Almost everybody in the last year; almost everybody in the last month; a bunch in the last week - Forman recounts a school survey showing how normalized violence was for youth. D.C. mandatory minimum referendum outcome: Passed overwhelmingly in every precinct but one - Shows broad public support for punitive policy despite civil rights opposition. Black Lives Matter protest study: 15% to 20% reduction in lethal force; roughly 300 fewer police killings; 1,000 to 6,000 additional murders - Klein cites research on protests and police behavior, alongside unintended homicide increases. Community crisis response in New Haven: Mobile teams for 911 calls not requiring police - Example of an alternative response model involving health and social service professionals. Biden proposal for violence prevention: $5 billion - Klein notes federal investment in violence-prevention programs in the American Jobs Plan. Sharkey research on nonprofits and murder rates: ~1 percentage point drop per additional nonprofit in a city of 100,000 - Used to argue that scaling community violence organizations could materially reduce murder. Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York violence interrupter studies: 50%, 30%, and similar reductions in shootings - Forman cites neighborhood-level evaluations of violence interruption models.

Pivotal Quotes: "Crime is not just a wicked problem. It creates a wicked politics." — Ezra Klein: Klein introduces the central thesis that crime shapes politics in destructive ways. "for residents of the city's poorest neighborhoods, especially young people, this treatment became part of the social contract, a tax paid in exchange for the right to move in public spaces." — James Forman Jr.: Forman describes the everyday burden of aggressive policing on Black youth. "the goal of our response was mediation and restoration and the goal of our response was about avoiding the harm and calming the situation" — James Forman Jr.: Forman explains the philosophy behind school-based alternatives to punitive discipline and policing.

Implications: The episode argues that safety policy must be both immediate and structural: fund alternatives to police for many calls, improve violent-crime investigations, and invest heavily in prevention. Without credible, staffed options, fear will keep pushing politics back toward punishment.