Why Is Murder Spiking? And Can Cities Address It Without Police?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Patrick Sharkey argues that U.S. violence is rooted in long-term spatial inequality, institutional abandonment, and the overreliance on policing and punishment. The 2020 murder spike exposed the fragility of “uneasy peace,” while community organizations, social services, and neighborhood-based institutions can reduce violence without making police the sole public safety tool.

Main Topics: Violence as a fundamental threat to city life: Sharkey argues that cities depend on safe public space; violence drives people indoors, weakens collective life, and harms the most marginalized communities most severely. 2020 murder spike and its causes: The conversation examines the historic rise in homicide during the pandemic and links it to lockdown disruptions, more guns, reduced institutional presence, and distrust between residents and police after George Floyd protests. Dual realities of policing: Policing can reduce crime in the short term, but aggressive policing, surveillance, and mass incarceration generate harm, resentment, and long-run instability. Community organizations as violence reducers: Sharkey presents evidence that nonprofits, youth programming, violence interruption, and neighborhood institutions can reduce crime as effectively as, or better than, police in many settings. New York City as proof of concept: New York’s post-de Blasio shift toward lighter-touch enforcement and community-based safety programs showed that crime could fall even as punitive policing receded. Scaling, politics, and federal investment: The discussion focuses on whether alternative public safety models can scale, how politics frames police alternatives, and whether federal funding can help build a ‘politics of abundance.’ International and local models for public well-being: Examples from Perth, Australia, and specific U.S. programs illustrate a vision where culturally rooted outreach workers and community advocates, not police, are the first responders in public space.

Key Arguments: Violence is central to the failure of city life because it makes people avoid public spaces, undermining schools, businesses, transit, and community institutions. Violence disproportionately harms children and disadvantaged neighborhoods by affecting cognition, attendance, stress, sleep, and long-term life outcomes. The 2020 crime surge was driven by multiple overlapping shocks: the pandemic, increased gun prevalence, and the legitimacy crisis following protests against police brutality. Defunding the police was not the cause of the 2020 homicide rise; police budgets had not fallen when violence began increasing, and similar increases occurred in cities across parties. Aggressive policing reduces violence in the short run, but it also produces legal estrangement, distrust, psychological harm, and weakened community cooperation. The U.S. has historically used a destabilizing combination of abandonment and punishment to manage urban inequality and violence. Community organizations and nonprofits are not peripheral; evidence suggests they materially contributed to the great crime decline through programs, services, and neighborhood stabilization. Programs such as CBT-based youth interventions, summer jobs, greening vacant lots, and improved street lighting show substantial reductions in violence. The transition away from police dominance should be gradual: police remain necessary for gun violence, but other actors should handle most public-space and nonviolent interventions. Federal investment in community violence prevention can help build alternative institutions without forcing cities to cut police budgets immediately.

Data Points: U.S. murder increase in 2020: 29% - Historic one-year rise in homicide during the pandemic Alternative statistic for the murder rise: nearly 30% - Referenced early in the discussion as the largest one-year increase since national records began National homicide records: since 1960 - The spike was described as the largest one-year increase on record since national tracking began Black adults’ confidence in police: 19% - Gallup figure cited for Black adults with a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in police in 2020 Black adults’ confidence in the criminal justice system: 11% - Gallup figure cited for Black adults with strong confidence in the criminal justice system overall People under state supervision: more than 6 million - Population in jail, prison, probation, or parole used to illustrate scale of punishment Black men born in the late 1960s: 1 out of 5 - Estimated share who would go to state or federal prison by middle age Black men killed by police: 1 out of 1,000 - Approximate lifetime risk cited in the discussion New York gun violence decline: about 50% - Gun violence fell between 2011 and 2018 during the city’s shift away from stop-and-frisk Typical city nonprofit effect: 10 organizations -> about 9% reduction in violent crime - Sharkey cited his research on nonprofit formation and violence reduction Becoming a Man program effect: 45% to 50% reduction - CBT plus after-school sports reduced arrests for participating middle schoolers Chicago summer jobs + CBT effect: 43% reduction over 16 months - Evaluation of youth employment plus CBT programming in Chicago Greened vacant lots effect: up to 30% reduction - Philadelphia randomized study of redesigning abandoned plots in high-poverty neighborhoods Improved street lighting effect: over 30% reduction in nighttime felonies - New York City housing development lighting study READY program early analysis: 80% reduction - Early findings showed fewer shooting and homicide arrests for participants Police spending in the U.S.: about $120 billion per year - Used to compare current investment in police versus community organizations Federal community violence prevention proposal: $5 billion - Build Back Better funding discussed as a major new federal investment Law enforcement agencies in the U.S.: 18,000 - Sharkey described policing as a decentralized system of mostly independent agencies Guns in circulation in the U.S.: 300 to 400 million - Used to explain why police remain central for gun-related violence Minneapolis ballot proposal: rejected - Voters rejected replacing the police department with a Department of Public Safety Polling on police spending: 47% support increase - Pew survey cited showing rising public support for more police funding in local areas

Pivotal Quotes: "The very idea of city life breaks down when public spaces carry the threat of violence when cities are unsafe." — Patrick Sharkey: Explaining why violence is central to the social function of cities "This dual strategy of abandonment and punishment, which has put us in the situation that we see today." — Patrick Sharkey: Describing the historical U.S. response to urban inequality and violence "We need to start investing in a new model. We need to start investing in a new set of institutions that, over time, with sufficient resources, can begin to play a more central role in looking out over their communities." — Patrick Sharkey: Outlining his core policy prescription for public safety reform

Implications: The episode argues for expanding public safety beyond police alone: invest heavily in community institutions, social services, and neighborhood outreach while keeping police focused on gun violence and emergency backup. The big challenge is scaling, funding, and politics.