Episode Summary
Executive Summary: The episode introduces Molly as a new full-time co-host and investor, then dives into a heated Web3/Twitter debate involving Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk, Chris Dixon, and others about decentralization, incentives, and crypto hype. It closes with a deep analysis of Rivian’s post-IPO plunge, questioning EV valuations, production execution, and how strategic investors can distort markets.
Main Topics: Molly Joins as Full-Time Co-Host (Priority: 5/5): Jason and Molly discuss their long friendship, how the partnership came together, and how the show will evolve with Molly as a co-host and investor-in-training. Show Format, Roles, and Ad Reads (Priority: 4/5): They plan how the show will split news duties, interviews, and Molly’s investing segments, while also debating how ad reads should be handled and how sponsorship affects trust. Web3 Twitter Clash (Priority: 5/5): A major segment dissects the late-night Twitter battle over Web3 between Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk, Balaji, Chris Dixon, and David Sacks, centering on decentralization, VC incentives, and whether Web3 is real or mostly marketing. Crypto Incentives and Regulatory Risk (Priority: 5/5): Jason argues that token markets create conflicts of interest similar to insider trading or market manipulation if tokens function like securities, especially when VCs buy low and promote projects publicly. Rivian Valuation and EV Market Reality (Priority: 5/5): The hosts analyze Rivian’s post-IPO drop and missed production targets, arguing the market had priced in unrealistic growth and comparing Rivian’s challenge to Tesla and legacy automakers. Tesla, Self-Driving, and Future Auto Competition (Priority: 4/5): They compare Rivian’s prospects with Tesla, Ford, and BMW, emphasizing brand strength, manufacturing scale, and the strategic advantage of Tesla’s self-driving and safety data.
Key Arguments: Molly’s background in journalism and marketplace-style radio makes her a strong fit for venture-focused co-hosting and learning in public. Remote work and modern dealmaking have changed venture capital: founders and investors can now do faster, more efficient meetings with better fit and lower travel costs. Ad reads are not necessarily a credibility problem if claims are carefully attributed; audiences are often less sensitive than creators fear. Web3 is being used as a broad label, but many of the underlying technologies and ideals already existed in the original open internet. A major concern in crypto is that VCs can buy tokens at discounted private prices, then publicly promote them while also holding equity positions, which may resemble market manipulation if tokens are securities. The SEC’s uncertainty over whether tokens are securities creates a gray zone that allows aggressive fundraising and promotion to continue. Rivian’s valuation was disconnected from its production reality; producing a few hundred vehicles against a 1,200-unit goal did not justify an $80B+ market cap. Strategic investors like Ford or Amazon may support or invest in EV startups for competitive intelligence or to hedge options, not just pure belief in the company. Tesla’s software, self-driving lead, and safety data may be more defensible than Rivian’s early hardware lead, especially as legacy brands enter EVs. Brand loyalty and manufacturing expertise from incumbents like BMW and Ford could make it difficult for a young EV brand to win mass-market adoption.
Data Points: Molly’s start date: January 3rd, 2022 - Jason says Molly begins as co-host the week of January 3rd. Show frequency: 6 days a week - Jason jokes the show is expanding from once weekly to six days per week, including Sunday. Team size: 8 people - They count two hosts, three producers, two sales people, and a studio director. SOC 2 savings from Vanta: $1,000 off - Sponsor offer for Twist listeners at vanta.com/twist. Embroker discount: up to 20% off plus extra 10% - Startup insurance promotion with offer code TWIST. Dataiku audience: 45,000+ people worldwide - Sponsor claim about global AI-driven growth community. Rivian stock drop from peak: 45% - Stock declined sharply after IPO/earnings disappointment. Rivian peak market cap: $150 billion - Jason notes Rivian briefly reached this valuation in November. Rivian current market cap: $86 billion - Approximate market cap after the selloff. Rivian share price fall: $172 to $96 - Price moved from IPO-era peak to post-earnings level. Rivian 2021 production goal: 1,200 vehicles - Company projected production target for the year. Rivian production as of Dec. 15: 652 vehicles - Vehicles built by mid-December. Rivian deliveries as of Dec. 15: 380 vehicles - Vehicles delivered by mid-December. Rivian deposits: 71,000 refundable deposits - Jason uses deposits in a valuation back-of-the-envelope calculation. Rivian truck starting price: $67,500 - Base price used to estimate revenue. Rivian hypothetical 2022 sales: 10,000 cars - Jason uses this to illustrate potential revenue multiples. Rivian implied price-to-sales ratio: 118x - Jason’s estimate using $80B market cap and projected sales. Rivian valuation at 25x sales: ~$21B - Jason suggests a more reasonable valuation range if sales scaled to $3.2B. Cybertruck deposits: 1,000,000 - Jason cites a million reservations as a contrast to Rivian demand.
Pivotal Quotes: "You don't own Web3. The VCs and their LPs do." — Jack Dorsey: Jack’s tweet kicking off the Web3 argument, accusing venture capital of controlling the decentralized web narrative. "First, they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. We are here. Then you win." — Chris Dixon: Chris Dixon’s reply framing Web3 as an inevitable movement that is now being opposed. "Rivian should be worth... I think $5 billion would be a fine valuation for Rivian right now." — Jason Calacanis: Jason’s on-air back-of-the-envelope valuation critique during the Rivian segment.
Implications: The episode frames both crypto and EVs as hype-heavy sectors where incentives, publicity, and valuation can outrun fundamentals. For listeners, the key takeaway is to scrutinize token economics, strategic-investor motives, and whether company performance justifies market prices.
About This Week in Startups
Jason Calacanis covers startups, tech, markets, media, and all the hottest topics in business and technology. He also interviews the world’s greatest founders, operators, investors, and innovators.