Episode Summary
Executive Summary: This prediction episode forecasts 2023 as a year of austerity, accountability, and sharp market resets across tech, media, crypto, and startups. The hosts expect AI, energy, and selective hardware to break out; Peloton and fragile media properties to struggle; TikTok/Meta to benefit from platform upheaval; and recession-driven discipline to reshape venture funding, valuations, and leadership.
Main Topics: 2023 Main Character Candidates (Priority: 5/5): The hosts debate who will dominate tech and public discourse in 2023, naming Elon Musk, Gary Gensler, SEC/Congress, Jerome Powell, and OpenAI/Microsoft as plausible central figures. Austerity, Focus, and Accountability (Priority: 5/5): They argue the startup world is shifting from excess to discipline, with stronger governance, tighter spending, and more accountability for VCs, founders, and regulators. Consumer and Media Weakness (Priority: 4/5): Peloton and some media brands are forecast as vulnerable to shutdowns or fire-sale exits due to recession pressure, high costs, and deteriorating business models. AI, AR, and Breakout Technology (Priority: 5/5): AI/text generation is expected to be the biggest breakout technology, while Apple’s AR glasses are anticipated but likely overhyped and early for mass adoption. Platform Winners and Social Media Shakeouts (Priority: 4/5): TikTok is expected to face U.S. pressure that could force a sale, with Meta/Instagram positioned to benefit from competitive disruption and valuation recovery. Capital Markets and Venture Reset (Priority: 5/5): The episode predicts lower seed valuations, fewer seed deals, more selective fundraising, and a healthier environment for capital deployment in 2023-2024 despite recession. Impactful Energy and Mobility Tech (Priority: 4/5): Bi-directional EV charging and energy startups are highlighted as meaningful infrastructure shifts, with decentralized power storage framed as a major future trend.
Key Arguments: 2023 will be defined by austerity and focus rather than growth-at-all-costs, as startups and investors adapt to recession conditions. Accountability will increase across tech, VC, and government after the governance failures and valuation excesses of 2022. Elon Musk remains the default 'main character' of tech, but Gary Gensler and regulatory forces may be even more consequential. AI tools like ChatGPT will rapidly change workflows for writing, coding, and productivity, making text-based AI the clearest breakout category. Apple’s AR glasses are likely to generate excitement but remain too early, too expensive, and too immature for broad adoption in 2023. Peloton is structurally vulnerable because consumers are cutting expensive discretionary subscriptions and hardware purchases. TikTok is too big to simply vanish; Chinese owners or investors may sell under U.S. pressure, creating a major payout and preserving the app in the market. Meta could rebound strongly if it benefits from TikTok disruption and internal cost-cutting, making it a possible stock-market winner. Venture capital will become more selective: fewer seed deals, lower valuations, and weaker funds unable to raise again. The best time to deploy startup capital is during downturns, when great companies can be acquired at better prices and stronger terms.
Data Points: Date of episode: January 2nd / 2023 predictions show - Opening framing for the annual forecast episode Peloton subscription price: $34–$44/month (mentioned as raised by a couple of bucks) - Used to argue recurring costs are too high in a recession Peloton hardware price: $2,000–$3,000 - Cited as a reason Peloton could face shutdown or fire sale SBF sentence over/under line: 30.5 years - Prediction market line discussed for Sam Bankman-Fried Carolyn Ellison sentence over/under line: 10.5 years - Prediction market line discussed for Caroline Ellison Christopher Nolan movie box office line: $750 million - Over/under discussed for the new Nolan film Recession duration line: 21 months - Over/under phrased as whether recession lasts past Q4 2024 PitchBook VC fund data: 593 VC funds raised $150 billion through Q3 2022 - Used to compare with 2021 and to predict fundraising slowdown PitchBook VC fund data: 1,100 VC funds raised almost $150 billion in all of 2021 - Used to show more funds raised similar capital in the prior year Seed deal capital line: $194 million - Mentioned as the comparable seed-deal deployment figure for the period referenced Seed deal count: 3,900 total seed deals through Q3 - Used in discussing expected decline in deal volume Big Tech sample: Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft - Used for stock-performance predictions Launch investments line: 100 - Over/under discussed for the number of launch investments New breakout social apps line: 30 - Over/under discussed for breakout BeReal-like social apps IPOs line: 177 - Used as the prior-year figure for IPO volume comparison 2020 IPOs: 480 - Referenced as a prior-year benchmark 2021 IPOs: 1,035 - Referenced as the peak benchmark 2022 IPOs: 177 - Referenced as the low benchmark for expected rebound Meta stock price example: $94 to about $115–$118 - Illustrated a rebound after layoffs and cost cuts Meta target range mentioned: $150–$200 share - Predicted possible stock price over the next 6–12 months Twitter layoffs: 10,000 layoffs - Used as a comparison point for performance-based cuts Consumer travel recovery: 2023 as year travel resumes - Used to argue Uber could benefit from increased rides and business travel
Pivotal Quotes: "the age of austerity and focus" — Molly: Describing the dominant startup and investing trend for 2023 "I think 2023 is going to be the best vintage of venture investing in the last 10 years" — Jason: Hot take on why downturn conditions create opportunity for investors "too big to ban" — Jason: Arguing that TikTok is too large and valuable for the U.S. market to disappear
Implications: Listeners should expect a tougher but more disciplined 2023: lower valuations, more scrutiny, and fewer easy bets. Winners are likely to be companies tied to AI, energy, and operational efficiency, while overextended consumer and media businesses may face shutdowns or sales.
About This Week in Startups
Jason Calacanis covers startups, tech, markets, media, and all the hottest topics in business and technology. He also interviews the world’s greatest founders, operators, investors, and innovators.