Ep. 439 - Is Trump Finally Winning?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues Trump is gaining political leverage as Mueller expands into transition emails and Democrats lose coherence on impeachment, sexual harassment, and tax politics. It also criticizes media bias, outlines a Federalist No. 8 lesson on standing armies, and ends with a long spoiler-filled review of The Last Jedi, praising its Kylo/Rey chemistry but condemning its plot holes and nostalgia-stripping choices.

Main Topics: Mueller investigation and Trump’s leverage (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro says Mueller’s access to Trump transition emails shows the probe drifting away from its original collusion premise and toward peripheral issues, while Trump is portrayed as increasingly confident he will be cleared. Obama-era Russia/Hezbollah allegations (Priority: 5/5): The host cites a Politico report suggesting the Obama administration blocked Hezbollah-related prosecutions and cooperated with Russia to appease Iran, arguing this is more substantive evidence of real Russia-related collusion than the Trump case. Trump’s policy momentum and 2018 outlook (Priority: 4/5): The show frames tax reform, court confirmations, Jerusalem, Iran policy, and improved GDP as evidence that Trump is finishing 2017 strong and entering 2018 in a better position than critics expected. Media bias and declining credibility (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro attacks CNN and other outlets for sensational and misleading coverage of Trump and the tax bill, arguing that the press sacrifices credibility to oppose Trump and then acts surprised when trust falls. Democratic dilemma over impeachment and sexual misconduct (Priority: 4/5): The episode argues Democrats overpromised that Trump would be removed, but now hesitate because impeachment could backfire. The Al Franken controversy is presented as proof they do not actually control the moral narrative they claimed. Federalist No. 8 and standing armies (Priority: 2/5): A brief constitutional segment explains Hamilton’s view that interstate conflict and invasion fears would push Americans toward standing armies and reduced liberty, reinforcing the need for a unified republic. Star Wars: The Last Jedi review (Priority: 5/5): The majority of the latter half is a spoiler review that strongly criticizes plot logic, character treatment, and new force abilities, while praising the Kylo/Ray dynamic, throne-room sequence, and Luke’s ending.

Key Arguments: Mueller’s seizure of tens of thousands of transition emails is framed as legally obtained but unrelated to the central collusion claim, suggesting investigative drift. The host argues that the Obama administration’s handling of Hezbollah/Russia-related cases is a stronger example of actual Russia-linked dealmaking than anything found in the Trump probe. Trump is said to be benefiting from a combination of policy wins, stronger economic numbers, and a weakened political case against him. The media are accused of misrepresenting tax reform as a massive giveaway to the wealthy and of using alarmist rhetoric that erodes their own credibility. Democrats cannot credibly demand Trump’s resignation or impeachment without risking a backlash and exposing their own sexual misconduct problems. The Al Franken reversal is presented as proof that Democrats’ sexual-harassment posture was politically, not morally, motivated. Star Wars is criticized for undermining its own legacy characters, relying on arbitrary force powers, and failing to take bold enough narrative risks. The Kylo/Rey connection is singled out as the film’s most successful innovation because it introduces genuine tension and chemistry not present elsewhere in the sequel trilogy.

Data Points: Trump transition email accounts obtained: 12 accounts - Mueller reportedly obtained emails from multiple transition accounts Emails in one account: about 7,000 emails - One of the transition accounts contained roughly 7,000 emails Total volume of emails: tens of thousands - Shapiro says Mueller obtained tens of thousands of transition emails GDP growth revision: almost 4% - He cites a revised estimate for the previous quarter’s growth Trump’s growth target: 4%, 5%, maybe even 6% - Trump says the economy could ultimately reach these growth rates Estimated value per percentage point of GDP: $2.5 trillion - Trump claims each percentage point of growth equals this amount Tax poll approval: 26% approve, 47% disapprove - A Monmouth poll is cited on public reaction to the tax bill Perceived tax outcome: 50% think taxes will go up; 14% think they will go down - Poll numbers on expectations for personal taxes under reform Federal budget share of major entitlements: 66% - Shapiro says Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security consume two-thirds of the budget Dollar Shave Club starter price: $5 - Advertising read for the shave club offer Thrive Market promo value: $60 free groceries - Advertising read for Thrive Market signup offer Thrive Market trial: 30-day free trial - Promo offer mentioned in sponsor read

Pivotal Quotes: "What does that have to do with collusion? The answer is pretty much nothing." — Ben Shapiro: On Mueller obtaining Trump transition emails "It’s not propaganda when Fareed Zachariah over at CNN says that the Republican tax plan is ushering in a bleak future." — Ben Shapiro: Critiquing media framing of tax reform "This is just insane to me." — Ben Shapiro: On the claim that an entire family’s transgender identity is purely genetic

Implications: The episode predicts Trump can survive the investigation and enter 2018 with real policy wins, while Democrats risk strategic overreach. It also suggests media trust will keep eroding if outlets keep hyper-politicized framing.