Ep. 591 - Path To 2018

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Trump’s escalating battles with Mueller and the media, while arguing that his real 2018 path to victory is immigration and anti-media messaging, not obsessing over the Russia probe. It also attacks left-wing policy ideas like Medicare for All and rent credits as economically reckless, and closes with culture-war commentary on gender norms and social engineering.

Main Topics: Trump, Giuliani, Cohen, and the Mueller probe (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro critiques Rudy Giuliani’s public defense of Trump as a PR mistake, especially his claim that “collusion is not a crime,” while also arguing that Trump’s tweets about Mueller are politically counterproductive even if the underlying investigation is flawed. 2018 midterms strategy: media attacks and immigration (Priority: 5/5): He argues Trump’s best electoral strategy is to mobilize his base through criticism of the media and hardline immigration rhetoric, including a willingness to force a government shutdown over border security. Media credibility and anti-Trump bias (Priority: 4/5): The show claims the media have become less credible across the political spectrum and that Trump benefits when media-vs-White House trust collapses, because the press depends on trust more than politicians do. Critique of progressive economic policy (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro rejects Medicare for All and similar Democratic proposals as fiscally impossible, pointing to massive projected costs and arguing that better healthcare affordability would come from deregulation rather than nationalization. Democratic policy proposals as economically naive (Priority: 4/5): He uses Kamala Harris’s rent credit plan as an example of basic economic misunderstanding, arguing that subsidizing rent would simply push rents higher. Culture-war commentary: Bigfoot erotica and historical renaming (Priority: 3/5): He mocks a Virginia congressional race over absurd allegations and criticizes efforts to rename Austin and other places over historical figures’ connections to slavery, framing it as virtue signaling and historical erasure. Gender, childhood, and socialization (Priority: 4/5): The closing segment attacks a BBC experiment on gender stereotypes, arguing boys and girls are naturally different and that attempts to neutralize gender roles in children are anti-scientific and confusing.

Key Arguments: Giuliani’s public remarks help Trump’s immediate media performance but hurt the legal and political defense by implying guilt-shifting rather than innocence. Trump’s fixation on Mueller is a distraction; he should focus on 2018, especially immigration and turnout among his base. The media’s credibility has declined because they emphasize anti-Trump rhetoric more than disciplined fact-checking. A shutdown threat over border security can be politically useful if Trump pre-commits clearly, though signaling it too early weakens leverage. Medicare for All would massively expand spending and is not financially credible; projections cited are tens of trillions of dollars. Healthcare costs are better attacked through deregulation and reducing administrative overhead than through total state control. Rent subsidies risk being captured by landlords through higher rents, making the policy inflationary rather than helpful. Attempts to erase historical names and gender norms reflect ideological overreach and an inability to tolerate nuance or biological differences.

Data Points: Generic congressional ballot: D+12 - Shapiro cites two polls showing Republicans trailing before the 2018 midterms. Republicans trusting White House vs media: 71% vs 7% - Morning Consult poll among Republicans on whether they trust Trump’s White House or the national media more. Independents trusting Trump vs media (2018): 24% vs 32% - Morning Consult numbers showing independents slightly favor the media over Trump, with many undecided. Independents undecided: 44% - Share of independents saying they don’t know who to trust more. Democrats trusting Trump vs media: 7% vs 63% - Morning Consult poll among Democrats. Medicare for All projected cost: $32.6 trillion over 10 years - Mercatus Center estimate cited by Shapiro. Alternative Medicare for All estimate: $32 trillion over 10 years - Urban Institute estimate also cited as corroboration. Revised long-term care adjustment: $29.6 trillion - Mercatus estimate after removing a long-term care program from the earlier proposal. U.S. healthcare administration share: 30% - NEJM estimate that about 30% of U.S. healthcare spending is administrative. Existing federal spending comparison: 54 times annual defense spending - Tiana Lowe comparison of Medicare for All cost over a decade. Federal budget comparison: Over 8 times annual federal budget - Tiana Lowe comparison of Medicare for All cost over a decade. State/local Medicaid coverage example: One in three Californians; nearly 40% of LA residents - Used to illustrate how large public health programs already are in California. Medi-Cal profit figure: $5.4 billion - Claim about California’s Medicaid expansion profitability from 2014 to 2016.

Pivotal Quotes: "tweet less, declassify more" — Ben Shapiro: Advice to Trump on handling allegations of FBI/DOJ bias and the Russia investigation. "I would be willing to shut down government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for border security" — Donald Trump: Trump’s stated stance on border-wall funding and immigration enforcement. "You can only have two of those three things" — Ben Shapiro: Shapiro’s framework for healthcare policy: affordability, universality, and quality cannot all be maximized at once.

Implications: Listeners are encouraged to see 2018 as a messaging and turnout battle: Trump should lean into immigration and anti-media themes, while Democrats’ policy agenda is framed as fiscally untenable and socially overreaching.